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NOAA Predicts Active 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Warm Waters and Favorable Conditions Could Fuel Strong Storms

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Washington, D.C. — Federal weather experts are forecasting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, with warm ocean temperatures and low wind shear among the key factors creating conditions ripe for storm formation.

In its seasonal outlook released Wednesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a 60% chance of an above-average hurricane season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 10% chance of below-normal activity. The season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.

Forecasters anticipate between 13 to 19 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes. Up to 3 to 5 are expected to reach major hurricane status—Category 3 or higher—with winds of at least 111 mph. NOAA says it has 70% confidence in these projections.

“This year’s outlook should serve as a call to action,” said Ken Graham, Director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “We urge everyone to prepare now—before a storm is on the horizon.”

Favorable Climate Conditions for a Busy Season

Several climate patterns are converging to create a more active-than-usual season. Chief among them: warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, which provide energy to fuel storm systems. Additionally, weaker upper-level winds and a potentially enhanced West African monsoon are expected to support more frequent and intense tropical waves—often the precursors to Atlantic hurricanes.

“This is the type of environment that allows storms to develop and intensify more easily,” explained Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “We saw last year how hurricanes can cause destruction far inland, not just along the coast. Our mission is to help communities prepare and stay safe.”

Grimm noted that hurricanes Helene and Debby in 2024 brought significant inland flooding, underscoring the wide-ranging impact these storms can have.

Technology and Forecasting Upgrades for 2025

This hurricane season also marks the introduction of several upgrades to NOAA’s forecasting tools:

  • The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System is being enhanced to improve storm track and intensity predictions by another 5%, improving the accuracy of early warnings.
  • For the first time, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be able to issue advisory products up to 72 hours in advance of expected storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds—giving communities more time to prepare.
  • The Global Tropical Hazards Outlook, which forecasts tropical cyclone risks, now extends its range from two to three weeks ahead, giving emergency planners more lead time.

Stronger Public Communication and Spanish-Language Services

In an effort to reach more communities, the NHC will expand its Spanish-language products for the 2025 season. These include advisories, updates, discussions, and key messages designed to keep Spanish-speaking populations better informed.

Also returning this year is the experimental version of the forecast cone graphic, which now highlights inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, and identifies areas where hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are active simultaneously.

In coastal areas, a new rip current risk map will be available when an active tropical system is present, based on data from local weather offices.

New Radar Tech and Flood Forecasting Tools

For the 2025 season, NOAA is introducing ROARS, an experimental electronically scanning radar system aboard its P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft. The technology will allow scientists to gather new data on wind patterns and ocean wave behavior underneath developing storms.

Meanwhile, the Weather Prediction Center’s Probabilistic Precipitation Portal, a user-friendly forecasting tool for rainfall and flooding, will offer three-day outlooks—a critical resource after Hurricane Helene dropped over 30 inches of rain in parts of North Carolina last year.

Be Ready, Not Caught Off Guard

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that NOAA’s investments in research and forecasting models are improving preparedness nationwide. “With these tools, we’ve never been more equipped to face a hurricane season,” he said.

While NOAA’s forecast speaks to overall activity and not where or when storms may strike, the agency urges all residents in hurricane-prone areas to review emergency plans, gather supplies, and stay alert throughout the season.

An updated outlook will be issued in early August, ahead of the historical peak of Atlantic hurricane activity.

Caribbean News

Guyanese Scholar and Olympian Arrested in Iowa ICE Crackdown

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Deandrea Hamilton | Editor

 

September 27, 2025 – In a shocking breach of public trust and institutional oversight, Ian Andre Roberts, superintendent of Des Moines Public Schools, who is a citizen of Guyana, was arrested on September 26 by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) under a string of serious offenses that raise troubling questions about hiring practices, accountability, and public safety.

Roberts, born in Georgetown, Guyana, is a former Olympian and accomplished scholar.  According to online reports, he earned a bachelor’s degree from Coppin State University after transferring from St. Francis College in Brooklyn, where he played soccer.  He holds two master’s degrees—from St. John’s University and Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business—attended an Executive MBA program at MIT Sloan School of Management and earned a doctorate in education with a focus on urban educational leadership from Trident University.

Despite these accomplishments, Roberts was living and working without legal authorization.  ICE reported that he fled a traffic stop and abandoned his school-issued vehicle.  At the time of his arrest, he was reportedly in possession of a loaded handgun, a fixed-blade hunting knife, and $3,000 in cash.  He also has a prior weapons-related charge.

ICE officials questioned how Roberts could hold such a prominent role while subject to a final deportation order issued in May 2024.  The school district said they were unaware of his immigration status, noting that he had undergone background checks and completed an I-9 form confirming work authorization.  Roberts was placed on administrative leave pending further investigation.

This case highlights vulnerabilities in systems meant to safeguard public institutions and underscores the challenges ICE faces in identifying individuals operating outside U.S. immigration laws while in positions of authority.

For many, Roberts has become a near-literal poster child for these enforcement gaps.

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Caribbean News

Bermuda Shaken by Targeted Murder as Crime Returns After a Decade of Calm

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Deandrea Hamilton | Editor

 

Bermuda is reeling after the brazen murder of 37-year-old Janae Minors, a mother of two, who was gunned down in her own beauty supply store on Court Street, Pembroke. The attack, which police describe as “targeted,” has rattled the island, not only for its brutality but for what it says about the state of law and order in a country that less than a decade ago was celebrating a dramatic fall in violent crime.

The Attack on Court Street

According to police, at approximately 4:45 p.m. on Tuesday, September 16, a lone gunman pulled up on a stolen black motorcycle, walked into the Beauty Monster shop Minors owned, and shot her multiple times. Despite the rapid response of emergency services, she succumbed to her injuries shortly after being transported to hospital.

Detectives say the killer was thin, tall, dressed in dark clothing with a full-face helmet, and wearing bright gloves. CCTV shows him fleeing north on Court Street, down Tills Hill toward TCD, before turning onto Marsh Folly Road. Investigators are pursuing all leads, with a focus on recovering evidence from nearby cameras and eyewitness accounts.

Police Commissioner Darrin Simons confirmed the attack bore the hallmarks of gang-related violence, a chilling indicator that Bermuda’s gang rivalries — long simmering beneath the surface — may once again be spilling into broad daylight.

A Vibrant Life Cut Short

Minors, remembered as a hardworking entrepreneur with “a vibrant, beautiful personality,” leaves behind two children, ages 16 and 18. Her murder has ignited outrage across Bermuda, not just for its senselessness but for its timing: the island had once prided itself on virtually stamping out gun violence.

Then: Near-Zero Murders

Back in 2014, Bermuda made international headlines for reporting zero firearm murders — a remarkable achievement given the small island had endured a spate of gang-related shootings in the early 2010s. Police credited intelligence-led operations, tighter firearms interdictions, and aggressive prosecutions of gang leaders. Community programs and mentoring initiatives also played a role, giving at-risk youth alternatives to gang life.

By 2015 and 2016, gun crime was at historic lows. That period was hailed as proof Bermuda could beat back the tide of violence with coordinated policing, social investment, and political will.

Now: Alarming Resurgence

Fast forward nine years, and the picture looks starkly different. In 2024 and 2025, Bermuda has recorded a rise in gun-related deaths. Rival gangs such as Parkside and 42 have resurged, fueled by a new generation of recruits. Economic pressures, high youth unemployment, and the easy flow of smuggled firearms through maritime routes have undermined earlier gains.

Community trust in the police has also eroded, making investigations harder and retaliations more likely. Opposition MPs and neighborhood leaders warn that without sustained focus, Bermuda risks sliding back into the violent cycles of the early 2010s.

Public Alarm and Political Pressure

Premier David Burt condemned Minors’ killing as “an escalation of community violence that cannot be tolerated,” promising stronger enforcement and deeper engagement with residents. The Bermuda Police Service has appealed for CCTV, dashcam, and doorbell footage from the area, urging residents that even the smallest detail could break the case.

Yet among the public, frustration is growing. People remember the calm of 2014 — when zero murders were recorded — and cannot understand how the island has returned to headlines dominated by gun violence. The contrast is stark: from celebrating the elimination of gun murders to confronting the targeted execution of a businesswoman in broad daylight.

A Test for Bermuda’s Future

The murder of Janae Minors has become more than a single case; it is now a symbol of Bermuda’s struggle to hold on to the progress it once made. The question facing the island is whether the successes of a decade ago can be replicated and sustained in today’s harsher climate of economic pressure and gang rivalries.

For Minors’ family, nothing can erase the tragedy of losing a mother and daughter so violently. But for Bermuda at large, her death is a wake-up call — that the island cannot afford complacency when it comes to crime.

As one community leader put it: “Nine years ago, we had beaten this. Now, we’re back to fearing what happens when the sun goes down. That is not the Bermuda we want to live in.”

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Caribbean News

CARICOM-Africa Summit Yields Draft Pact on Trade, Travel and Reparations

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Imagine an Atlantic Bridge connecting the Caribbean Region to the African Continent

 

Deandrea Hamilton  | Editor

 

Addis Ababa, Ethiopia — When CARICOM leaders convened with African counterparts and Afreximbank officials in Ethiopia, the outcomes were savory and exactly what many Caribbean people want to see materialise as the islands become uniquely reconnected to the African continent.

At the Second CARICOM-Africa Summit, held at the African Union headquarters, leaders moved beyond symbolic language to agree on a draft communiqué that, if finalized, would anchor this partnership in practical action. While not yet officially published by the AU or CARICOM, the document points to an agenda that blends history with urgent twenty-first century priorities.

The draft outlines commitments to improve air and sea transport links, including the pursuit of a multilateral air services agreement to break down the barriers that still keep the Caribbean and Africa physically apart. It also calls for visa facilitation and simplified entry regimes, making it easier for citizens of both regions to travel, study, and work across the Atlantic.

Equally significant are pledges to advance double taxation treaties that could remove one of the most stubborn obstacles to investment. With Afreximbank’s Caribbean headquarters already established in Barbados and the AfriCaribbean Trade and Investment Forum (ACTIF) gaining momentum, leaders now want to lock in the financial and legal frameworks that will drive new business.

Reparatory justice also featured prominently, with the draft communiqué sharpening a joint call for coordinated advocacy. CARICOM’s long-standing Reparations Commission is expected to work more closely with African institutions to demand global recognition and redress for the shared traumas of slavery and colonial exploitation.

CARICOM’s incoming chair, Prime Minister Dr. Terrance Drew of St. Kitts and Nevis, captured the spirit of the gathering when he urged that the Atlantic Slave Trade be reimagined as an “Atlantic Bridge — a bridge of hope, a bridge of advancement, a bridge that will ensure our people take their rightful place in this world.”

For Secretary-General Dr. Carla Barnett, the meeting was a “homecoming,” but also a reminder that concrete steps like the Health Development Partnership for Africa and the Caribbean (HeDPAC) and improved transportation links are needed to transform rhetoric into results.

For citizens back home, wrestling with inflation and economic uncertainty, the Addis outcomes — transport, visas, investment, health, and reparations — are precisely the kinds of measures that can validate leaders’ journeys and rekindle faith in South-South cooperation. What was once only rhetoric now hints at the beams of an Atlantic Bridge, connecting the Caribbean and Africa in ways that could finally turn history’s tragedy into tomorrow’s advantage.

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