Weather
Forecast for the Bahamas and the Turks & Caicos Islands from 30th April to 05th May 2019
#Nassau, April 30, 2019 – Bahamas –S
General Situation: A surface trough along with a mid to upper level trough across the Central Bahamas continues to trigger unsettled weather across the entire Bahamas with some severe weather occurring at times through Thursday. The mid to upper level trough will shift across the NW Bahamas and weaken on Thursday as it completely dissipates by Friday. Meanwhile building high pressure ridge north of the Bahamas will produce moderate to strong breezes over the area through Thursday, then it will weaken and shift eastwards through Sunday.M
Tuesday 30th – Partly sunny, windy and warm with few lingering showers or possible isolated thunderstorm NW Bahamas during the daytime, turning mainly fair and warm at night time. Variable cloudiness and windy with scattered showers and widely scattered thunderstorms across the Central and SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands through nightfall. Maximum temperature 83°F and a minimum temperature 73°F. Small craft advisory continues across the entire Bahamas. Winds E’ly at 15 to 25 knots overall areas. Seas 5 to 8 feet overall areas but higher in moderate N’ly to NE’ly swells across the Bahamas.
Wednesday 01st – Partly cloudy, breezy to windy and warm with the chance of isolated showers in the NW Bahamas during the daytime, turning partly cloudy to fair and warm at night with the slight chance of a shower. In the Central and SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands cloudy to occasionally overcast and windy with scattered showers and widely scattered thunderstorms, some becoming heavy to severe at times during the daytime through nightfall. Maximum temperature 83°F and a minimum temperature 74°F. Small craft advisory across the entire Bahamas becomes a caution across the Central and SE Bahamas
and the Turks and Caicos Islands later. Winds E to SE at 15 to 25 knots across the entire Bahamas early but decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the NW Bahamas later and dropping to 15 to 20 knots in the Central and SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later. Seas 5 to 8 feet across the entire Bahamas early, falling to 4 to 7 feet later in the Central and SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later and 3 to 5 feet in the NW Bahamas. Light to moderate NE’ly to E’ly swells overall areas.
Thursday 02nd – Variable cloudiness, warm and humid with some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the daytime through nightfall. Maximum temperature 86°F and a minimum temperature 74°F. Small craft advisory across the NW and SE Bahamas early becomes a caution across the Central and SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later. Winds E to SE at 15 to 25 knots in the NW and SE Bahamas early but decreasing to 12 to 18 knots in the NW Bahamas as winds become 15 to 20 knots in the Central and SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands later. Seas 5 to 8 feet over NW and SE Bahamas, falling to 3 to 5 feet in the NW Bahamas later and 4 to 6 feet in the Central and SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands with light to moderate E’ly swells across the Bahamas.
Friday 03rd – Variable cloudiness, very warm and humid with scattered showers and widely scattered thunderstorms mainly across the NW and Central Bahamas, generally clearing across the Central and SE Bahamas
and the Turks and Caicos Islands through nightfall. Maximum temperature 88°F and a minimum temperature 75°F. Small craft should exercise caution in the Central and SE Bahamas. Winds SE’ly at 10 to 15 knots in the NW Bahamas and E to SE at 15 to 20 knots in the Central and SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. Seas 2 to 4 feet over the NW Bahamas and 4 to 6 feet in the Central and SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands but higher in moderate NE’ly to E’ly swell across the Bahamas.
Saturday 04th – Mostly cloudy to overcast, very warm and humid with lingering showers or possible isolated thunderstorms mainly across the NW Bahamas during the daytime. Turning fair and warm at night. Maximum temperature 88°F and a minimum temperature 75°F. Small craft should exercise caution across the Central and SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands but decreasing across the Central Bahamas by afternoon. Winds SE to S at 10 to 15 knots in the NW Bahamas, falling light and variable at times and E to SE at 15 to 20 knots in the Central and SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, falling to 10 to 15 knots in the Central Bahamas later. Seas 2 to 4 feet in the NW Bahamas, falling light and variable at times and 4 to 6 feet in the Central and SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands becoming 2 to 4 feet in the Central Bahamas later. Lingering E’ly to SE’ly swells across the entire Bahamas.
Sunday 05th – Partly sunny, very warm and humid with the chance of few isolated showers in the NW and Central Bahamas during the daytime, turning partly cloudy to fair and warm at night time. Partly cloudy to cloudy and very warm with the chance of passing showers during the daytime through nightfall. Maximum temperature 89°F and a minimum temperature 75°F. Small craft should exercise caution in the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands early. Winds ESE to SSE at 10 to 15 knots in the NW and Central Bahamas, falling light and variable at times and E to SE at 15 to 20 knots in the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots later. Seas 2 to 4 feet over the NW and Central Bahamas and 4 to 6 feet in the SE Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands , falling to 2 to 4 feet later.
Dissipating E’ly to SE’ly swells expected overall areas.
Beachgoers and mariners should be vigilant due to rough surf and the high risk of dangerous rip currents mainly along the north and east coast beaches during stated advisories. Mariners should exercise extreme caution for ocean swells and possible severe weather activity over parts of the Bahamas as stated.
Geoffrey Greene
PRESS RELEASE
FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF DISASTER
MANAGEMENT AND EMERGENCIES
Providenciales, Turks and Caicos Islands, 9th April 2024 – The Department of Disaster Management and Emergencies (DDME) reminds the residents of the Turks and Caicos Islands that the 2024 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season will officially begin on Saturday, 01 June, 2024, and end on Saturday, 30 November, 2024.
The Colorado State University (CSU) on April 4th, 2024, released its first 1st hurricane predictions for 2024, the outlook calls for an extremely active hurricane season with twenty-three (23) named storms, of which eleven (11) will be hurricanes with five (5) being major hurricanes. Colorado State has never predicted more than nineteen (19) named storms or nine (9) hurricanes in its
initial forecast.
The extremely active season is being mainly guided by two factors:
- At present, there is record-breaking high sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic Ocean. In February, sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic had already reached historically high levels of about 1.2°C (2.2°F) above normal, from off the coast of Africa to off the coast of Central America; this region is considered the main development region for the Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones. (Tropical cyclones include depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.)
The sea surface temperatures experienced in the month of February were more typical of that of warmer months such as June and July. (Warm oceans provide fuel to help tropical cyclones form, and boost their strength after formation.) However, the sea surface becomes warmer and warmer as the season progresses. Therefore, with such record-high sea surface temperatures already in place from West Africa to Central America, there is a likelihood that more tropical cyclones will develop and their strength boosted by this added fuel.
- The forecasters/experts have also advised that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is transitioning from the El Niño phase experienced in 2023, to a brief neutral phase, then to a La Niña Phase. The La Niña Phase Forecast is anticipated to be fully in place by September 2024. Rain and increased moisture from the La Niña conditions could supercharge the season.
Kindly be reminded that it is the El Niño phase of ENSO that suppresses hurricane formation in the Atlantic Basin — since the El Niño generates more wind shear (winds changing winds with direction and height), which in turn suppresses the activity of hurricanes.
However, with La Niña the effects are the opposite — reduced wind shear, thus assisting hurricane formation and activity.
Thus, the experts are forecasting, anticipating, and expecting an above-normal supercharged 2024 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Basin. Whilst in a normal season, there are approximately 14 named storms, 7 of which develop into hurricanes, of which 3 of these 7 develop into major hurricanes.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), will present their predictions on Thursday 23rd May, 2024 and CSU will release an update on Tuesday 11th June, 2024.
The Deputy Premier and Minister of Physical Planning and Infrastructure Development, with Responsibility for Disaster Management, Honourable Jamell Robinson encourages the residents of the Turks and Caicos Islands to commence their individual and family preparations; as the CSU has predicted an increased level of hurricanes that can potentially impact the Caribbean Region.
Hon. Robinson seeks to remind that the predictions would be more than we have experienced in the past years. Residents are urged to take proactive measures ahead of the 2024 Atlantic Season, as it only takes one storm to impact the TCI. As the Minister with Responsibility for Disaster Management, Hon. Robinson would like to implore individuals to take their individual and family precautionary actions so that our collective efforts of preparation for a major storm can reduce any potential impact.
Therefore, it is imperative that the residence of the Turks and Caicos Islands seriously begin their preparations, by inspecting their homes and making any necessary repairs, updating of their Family Plan and Insurance Policies. Ensuring that your Insurance Policies cover Flooding etc.
Remember Early preparation is the key!
Garfield Ekon
Staff Writer
#TurksandCaicos, March 22, 2024 – A severe weather warning for has been issued for the Turks and Caicos Islands, and The The Bahamas, where rainfall will effect the islands from Friday, March 22 to Monday, March 25.
According to The Bahamas Department of Meteorology, the combination of a “potent upper-level” trough, and unseasonably warm and moist conditions near the surface poses the “potential for squally/severe weather for the two countries.
The agency said in a statement on Wednesday that the three-day rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of up
to eight inches are likely in the Northwest Bahamas. Lesser accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are likely in the Central Bahamas and 1 to 2 inches in the Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
It forecasted that the “highest risk” for squally/severe convection is expected from Friday evening to Saturday night, in the Northwest and Central Bahamas, and some street flooding and flooding of other low-lying areas, especially in the Northwest and Central Bahamas, is expected.
“Heavy downpours, localized flooding, strong gusty winds, dangerous lightning, hail and possible waterspout or tornadic activity may be expected during thunderstorms,” the agency said, adding that for the Northwest Bahamas, winds will be 20 to 30 knots, with gusts to gale force.
For the Central and Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, winds will be 20 to 25 knots with higher gusts. Small craft operators should not venture far from port in the Northwest and Central Bahamas on Friday,” the Met officed warned.
A small craft advisory will come into effect in Southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Friday.
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