September 30, 2024

The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) is warning Caribbean countries to be prepared for “increased tropical cyclones and severe weather activity” over the next three-month period.

“It cannot be over emphasized — particularly after the record-breaking category 5 hurricane Beryl, plenty of flooding and nearly non-stop record-breaking heat — that 2024 is a year of climate extremes in the Caribbean.”

In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks publication released here on Monday, CariCOF said that a transition to La Niña may occur in the equatorial Pacific while near record-warm Tropical North Atlantic Ocean temperatures will likely continue.

La Niña is a climate pattern that describes the cooling of surface-ocean water along the tropical west coast of South America. Typically, La Nina events occur every 3 to 5 years or so, but on occasion can occur over successive years.

“For the Caribbean Islands and Belize, such ocean conditions imply increased tropical cyclone and severe weather activity through December, resulting in high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts,” CariCOF said.

It said unusual oceanic heat further implies episodes of “oppressive humid heat could continue into early-November,” particularly in the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao), the Guianas and the Windward Islands.

“The Guianas will transition from the hot and dry season into cooler and (much) wetter conditions from late-November, except in the far southwest,” CariCOF added.

It said that as of September 1, severe or short-term drought has developed in Trinidad and worse drought conditions are being recorded in the interior arts of the Guianas. It said short term drought may be possible in Suriname.

“Long term drought as at the end of November is evolving in southwest Belize, French Guiana and Trinidad and might possibly develop or continue in coastal Guyana, the United States Virgin Islands, St. Vincent and Tobago,” CariCOF added.

Regarding the climate outlook for the period January to March 2025, CariCOF said night-time and daytime temperatures, as well as air humidity will likely be considerably higher than usual in most areas.

“Frequent episodes of heat stress are expected in the region and are likely to continue through October in this record-breaking heat season. Heat stress may further ramp up where dry spells are more frequent than usual.

“This period marks the progression of the Caribbean Dry Season to its usual peak by March and the Cool Season. An unseasonably warm Tropical North Atlantic, potentially combined with La Niña conditions is the forecast for this period.”

But CariCOF said that more comfortable temperatures, though likely higher and with more humidity than usual are forecast for this Cool Season.

“The risk of severe weather impacts from intense shower activity, including flooding, flash floods, and cascading impacts should decrease from moderate in early January to marginal in early March in Belize and the islands.

“An intense Dry Season is forecast for the Bahamas, Cayman Islands and Cuba, potentially leading to short-term drought. By contrast, unusually copious rainfall is forecast for the ABC Islands, Guianas and Lesser Antilles,” it added.

Garfield Ekon
Staff Writer

Barbados, September 4, 2024 – The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) says cooling temperatures in the equatorial Pacific may possibly result in a progressive transition to La Niña while near record warm Tropical North Atlantic Ocean are set to continue.

In its outlook for the period September to December, CariCOF said though unpredictable conditions in the atmosphere can, at times, present barriers to extreme activity of these three types of seasons, they are unlikely to persist throughout the period.

It said during the period May to July this year, a record-warm Tropical North Atlantic had continued to fuel record-breaking temperatures, as well as the usual or even larger than the usual rainfall totals during the transition into the Caribbean wet season, including record rainfall in inland Guyana and Suriname.

Nevertheless, long-term drought remains in place in northern Guyana and westernmost Jamaica.

CariCOF said that as of August 1, this year, severe or worse short-term drought has developed in western Jamaica and southwest Trinidad with long-term drought in southwest Belize, French Guiana, northern Guyana, western Jamaica and eastern Suriname.

Long-term drought at the end of November is evolving in French Guiana, and Trinidad, and might possibly develop or continue in western and southeastern Belize, northern Guyana and Tobago.

“An unseasonably warm Tropical North Atlantic, potentially combined with La Niña conditions is forecast. Consequently, unusually high air temperatures and humidity remain likely in many locations, but a steady decrease in heat stress is expected in November as the region transitions into the cool season by December.”

It said  the risk of severe weather impacts from frequent tropical cyclones or other shower activity, including flooding, flash floods, and cascading impacts should be initially high to extremely high through December in Belize and the islands, but subsequently decrease.

Unusually copious rainfall totals are forecast in the Guianas, Jamaica and the Lesser Antilles, CariCOF added.

Garfield Ekon

Staff Writer

A hurricane is a violent warm-core tropical storm with a minimum wind speed of 119 km or (74 mph) rotating in a counter-clockwise spiral around a region of low pressure called the center of the eye.

The weather pattern between June and December is significantly influenced by the Northward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and cyclonic instability, which leads to the formation of easterly waves, storms, and hurricanes.

While hurricane winds move in a spiraling counterclockwise direction, the hurricane itself moves with the basic motion of the trade winds in which it is embodied.

The official hurricane season starts on June 1 and continues till November 30 annually. The period is usually a rainy one even if a hurricane does not develop.

The Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA), a regional inter-Governmental agency for disaster management in the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), advises that the following disaster supplies be stocked during the season.

Flashlight and extra batteries, portable, battery-operated radio, first aid kit, non-perishable (canned food) and water, non-electric can opener. Essential medicines, and as much cash on hand, to respond to emergencies. Permanent shutters are the best protection. A lower-cost approach is to put up plywood panels. Use 1/2-inch plywood–marine plywood is best–cut to fit each window.

Remember to mark which board fits which window. Pre-drill holes every 18 inches for screws. Do this long before the storm. Trim back branches from trees .Trim branches away from your home and cut all dead or weak branches on any trees on your property.

Check into your Home and Auto Insurance.  Confirm that policies are valid, and coverage is appropriate. Make arrangements for pets and livestock. Pets may not be allowed into emergency shelters for health and space reasons. Contact your local humane society for information on animal shelters.

Develop an emergency communication plan. Make sure that all family members know what to do. Teach family members how and when to turn off gas, electricity, and water. Teach children how and when to call police or fire department and which radio station to tune to for emergency information. In case family members are separated from one another during a disaster (a real possibility during the day when adults are at work and children are at school), have a plan for getting back together.

After a hurricane, persons should seek medical attention at first-aid stations, hospitals or clinics for persons injured during the storm. Do not touch loose or dangling electrical wires. Report these to the power company, the nearest police station or parish council.

Report all broken sewer or water mains directly to the parish council, the public works department or water resources authority for your area. Immediately after the hurricane don’t use stored water for washing houses, cars and watering gardens until normal water services have been restored. Do not empty water stored in bathtubs or other receptacles until safe drinking water is restored.

Boil all drinking water until you are sure that a safe water supply has been restored. Watch out for fallen trees. Collect fallen branches and other debris and pile them where they can be easily collected. Do not go outside barefooted.

Avoid wearing open shoes and watch out for broken glass.