NEWS ITEM ON HURRICANE MILTON, ISSUED BY THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY FORECAST OFFICE SECTION, AT 12 PM EDT, MONDAY 7TH OCTOBER 2024.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY, OUTLINING THE INDIRECT IMPACTS OF MILTON AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY….

…MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY…

…FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE…

AT 11 AM EDT, THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7.0° NORTH AND LONGITUDE 91.7° WEST, OR ABOUT 130 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF PROGRESO, MEXICO, OR 720 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA, FLORIDA.

MILTON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). AN EASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON TE FORECAST TRACK, MILTON IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND TUESDAY, THEN CROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND APPROACH THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 155 MPH (250 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  MILTON IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. MILTON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND BECOME A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE NEXT NEWS ITEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 6PM.

PREPARED BY FORECASTER: C. WATSON-RAHMING
ISSUED: MONDAY 7TH OCTOBER 2024 @ 11:50 AM EDT.

September 30, 2024

The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) is warning Caribbean countries to be prepared for “increased tropical cyclones and severe weather activity” over the next three-month period.

“It cannot be over emphasized — particularly after the record-breaking category 5 hurricane Beryl, plenty of flooding and nearly non-stop record-breaking heat — that 2024 is a year of climate extremes in the Caribbean.”

In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks publication released here on Monday, CariCOF said that a transition to La Niña may occur in the equatorial Pacific while near record-warm Tropical North Atlantic Ocean temperatures will likely continue.

La Niña is a climate pattern that describes the cooling of surface-ocean water along the tropical west coast of South America. Typically, La Nina events occur every 3 to 5 years or so, but on occasion can occur over successive years.

“For the Caribbean Islands and Belize, such ocean conditions imply increased tropical cyclone and severe weather activity through December, resulting in high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts,” CariCOF said.

It said unusual oceanic heat further implies episodes of “oppressive humid heat could continue into early-November,” particularly in the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao), the Guianas and the Windward Islands.

“The Guianas will transition from the hot and dry season into cooler and (much) wetter conditions from late-November, except in the far southwest,” CariCOF added.

It said that as of September 1, severe or short-term drought has developed in Trinidad and worse drought conditions are being recorded in the interior arts of the Guianas. It said short term drought may be possible in Suriname.

“Long term drought as at the end of November is evolving in southwest Belize, French Guiana and Trinidad and might possibly develop or continue in coastal Guyana, the United States Virgin Islands, St. Vincent and Tobago,” CariCOF added.

Regarding the climate outlook for the period January to March 2025, CariCOF said night-time and daytime temperatures, as well as air humidity will likely be considerably higher than usual in most areas.

“Frequent episodes of heat stress are expected in the region and are likely to continue through October in this record-breaking heat season. Heat stress may further ramp up where dry spells are more frequent than usual.

“This period marks the progression of the Caribbean Dry Season to its usual peak by March and the Cool Season. An unseasonably warm Tropical North Atlantic, potentially combined with La Niña conditions is the forecast for this period.”

But CariCOF said that more comfortable temperatures, though likely higher and with more humidity than usual are forecast for this Cool Season.

“The risk of severe weather impacts from intense shower activity, including flooding, flash floods, and cascading impacts should decrease from moderate in early January to marginal in early March in Belize and the islands.

“An intense Dry Season is forecast for the Bahamas, Cayman Islands and Cuba, potentially leading to short-term drought. By contrast, unusually copious rainfall is forecast for the ABC Islands, Guianas and Lesser Antilles,” it added.

Garfield Ekon
Staff Writer

Barbados, September 4, 2024 – The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) says cooling temperatures in the equatorial Pacific may possibly result in a progressive transition to La Niña while near record warm Tropical North Atlantic Ocean are set to continue.

In its outlook for the period September to December, CariCOF said though unpredictable conditions in the atmosphere can, at times, present barriers to extreme activity of these three types of seasons, they are unlikely to persist throughout the period.

It said during the period May to July this year, a record-warm Tropical North Atlantic had continued to fuel record-breaking temperatures, as well as the usual or even larger than the usual rainfall totals during the transition into the Caribbean wet season, including record rainfall in inland Guyana and Suriname.

Nevertheless, long-term drought remains in place in northern Guyana and westernmost Jamaica.

CariCOF said that as of August 1, this year, severe or worse short-term drought has developed in western Jamaica and southwest Trinidad with long-term drought in southwest Belize, French Guiana, northern Guyana, western Jamaica and eastern Suriname.

Long-term drought at the end of November is evolving in French Guiana, and Trinidad, and might possibly develop or continue in western and southeastern Belize, northern Guyana and Tobago.

“An unseasonably warm Tropical North Atlantic, potentially combined with La Niña conditions is forecast. Consequently, unusually high air temperatures and humidity remain likely in many locations, but a steady decrease in heat stress is expected in November as the region transitions into the cool season by December.”

It said  the risk of severe weather impacts from frequent tropical cyclones or other shower activity, including flooding, flash floods, and cascading impacts should be initially high to extremely high through December in Belize and the islands, but subsequently decrease.

Unusually copious rainfall totals are forecast in the Guianas, Jamaica and the Lesser Antilles, CariCOF added.