May 20, 2019 – An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred southwest of Bermuda by Monday (today). This system could develop into a short-lived subtropical or tropical cyclone late today or Tuesday while moving northward or northeastward.
By Wednesday, however, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development, and the system should become rapidly absorbed by a cold front. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if necessary. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…medium…50 percent.
The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season comes to an end
By Shanieka Smith
December 1, 2022 – The 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season has come to an end after 14 named storms. Two of these developed into major hurricanes, Hurricanes Fiona and Ian. Still the death toll was over 300 and damage costs are nearing $55 billion.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) described the Season as one of the most unique. The pause in storms that occurred during the season was a rare occurrence that scientists believe was due to lowered atmospheric moisture and increased wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean.
“The 2022 seasonal activity fell within NOAA’s predicted ranges for named storms and hurricanes in both our pre-season outlook and updated outlook,” said the lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, Matthew Rosencrans.
Hurricane Season 2022 ends today; 337 died + Damages at $54 Billion
By Dana Malcolm
November 30, 2022 – What was predicted to be an extremely active hurricane season ends today Wednesday November 30, thankfully, falling a little short of 2022 predictions. Less storms, less major storms still 337 were killed and damages hit over $54 billion.
The season started slowly when compared to recent years. In fact, 2022 was the first hurricane season in eight years where a storm did not develop before June 1st. Nonetheless by June 5 the first storm was in and it was named: Alex which was one of the few storms to survive crossing land moving into the Atlantic from the Eastern Pacific basin.
Alex was the first of fourteen storms. Bonnie and Colin arrived in July without much damage and the season was quiet for another month.
Then came September, which spat out Hurricanes Danielle; Earl; Fiona; Tropical Storm Gaston; Hurricane Ian; and Tropical Storm Hermine in quick succession.
Hurricane Fiona which reached Category 4 strength became the first major storm of the season on October September 20th passing by the Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the Turks and Caicos with severe flooding in the two Latino Caribbean countries and violent winds in TCI, a small British overseas territory which it hit as a Category 1 storm.
Bermuda would also feel the wrath of Hurricane Fiona which continued north, into Canada where at Cat4 strength it become that country’s strongest, devastating infrastructure in places like Prince Edward Island. The death toll in Fiona: 31 people.
Only seven days later Hurricane Ian, which at its strongest was a Category 4, barreled towards Florida and the Carolinas going past Jamaica and directly over Cuba in the process, with destructive results.
Almost 150 people were killed according to US media.
Large swaths of Florida were torn apart and thousands left homeless. A 12 foot storm surge meant many people in single story homes had to leave them behind lest they drown in the water filling them.
In October Category 1 Hurricane Julia and Tropical Storm Karl formed. Skirting the Central American countries, Julia still drenched Venezuela, Guatemala and El Salvador – reports of severe flash floods led to at least 91 people died.
Hurricanes Lisa, Martin, and Nicole formed in November.
Nicole was a surprising late season Category 1 hurricane which brought extreme flooding to the Dominican Republic and Northwestern Bahamas affecting areas still recovering from hurricane Dorian. It went on to further damage areas of Florida which had only weeks before been slightly affected by Hurricane Ian. Nicole brought a direct and damaging hit. At least 11 people were killed.
According to official assessments, the University of Arizona turned out to be the most accurate predictor of the season claiming back in April that there would be fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Hurricane Nicole – A symbol of climate injustice
By Deandre Williamson
Caribbean Climate Justice Journalism Fellow
#TheBahamas, November 29, 2022 – With the trauma of Hurricane Dorian still lingering, Abaco and Grand Bahama residents braced for Hurricane Nicole as they experienced another unfair blow of climate injustice.
As sea levels rose, triggering storm surges and flooding, the northwestern islands of The Bahamas were placed under hurricane watch. For many, this signaled that the fight for climate justice must continue.
Some residents on those islands evacuated their homes and fled to shelters hours before Nicole made landfall in The Bahamas on Nov. 9 as a tropical storm and strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane with winds up to 75 miles per hour.
“The wind was manageable. It wasn’t as bad as we thought. In our area we got maybe a limb or so that blew down. The power was out for a while, but thank God, we made it through it,” Abaco resident Mark Anthony Swain said.
Although the impact of Hurricane Nicole was minimal when compared to Hurricane Dorian in 2019, climate change is the underlying cause of the intensity and frequency of hurricanes in recent years.
When Nicole exited The Bahamas, the “all clear” was given, but the country isn’t clear from future hurricanes and the devastating effects of climate change.
However, it’s clear that The Bahamas and other Small Island Developing States (SIDS) need climate justice because they are hit hardest by the impact of climate change, are the least responsible and together bear next to no responsibility for the climate crisis.
While the Government of The Bahamas is fighting for climate justice, residents of Abaco and Grand Bahama are calling for more to be done to mitigate the impact of climate change.
Swain, who also experienced Hurricane Dorian, said the countries that are major contributors of carbon emissions in the atmosphere should do more to assist smaller countries in fighting climate change, so when hurricanes and other natural disasters occur, the smaller countries will be able to maintain themselves.
“I think these other countries that are contributing to the climate challenge that we are facing should be held responsible and accountable in that regard,” Swain added.
China, the United States, Russia, India and Japan are the top five countries with the highest carbon emissions in the world.
Grand Bahama resident Randy Deleveaux, who was on the island during Hurricane Nicole, agrees that more should be done concerning the climate crisis because The Bahamas is in a hurricane zone based on its geographical location.
“We know that every year rain, sun or shine, it appears as if we are going to have a hurricane, whether it’s a major one or not a major one,” Deleveaux said. “As a matter of fact, even though the ones we consider not major, we still have to take more necessary precautions because Dorian taught us we can’t take nothing for granted.”
Deleveaux suggested that the government should ensure that every household is equipped with storm shutters, floatation devices and life jackets.
“There are so many things that the government can do and persons can do in relation to hurricanes because we always have to prepare,” he added.
“Every time we have a hurricane coming, persons have to run and scrap for plywood to put on their windows. We need to move from that and be able to properly prepare.
“Look at our coastal erosion and stuff like that because of the hurricanes. I remember one time you could go on the beaches and see sand, now some of these beaches don’t have no sand like that because of hurricanes and we’re not even looking at the impact that is having on our coastal and marine life. We don’t replace the sand. There is so much things we can do.”
Loss and Damage
But no matter how large or small a hurricane measures on the Saffir-Simpson Scale, there is always loss and damage associated with a storm.
According to Prime Minister of The Bahamas Philip Davis, during the Caribbean Regional Heads of Government Meeting in Preparation for COP27, more than 50 percent of The Bahamas’ outstanding debt can be linked to the impacts of the hurricanes between 2015 and 2019.
The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), in its damage and loss assessments (DaLA) synthesis, noted that The Bahamas has lost more than $4.2 billion over the past seven years as a result of Hurricanes Joaquin, Matthew, Irma and Dorian.
Abaco and Grand Bahama are still rebuilding from Hurricane Dorian and, although minimal, the damages from Hurricane Nicole are being assessed.
Prime Minister Davis was in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt attending COP27 when Hurricane Nicole passed through the northwestern Bahamas. At COP27, he called on world leaders to get real about ensuring that loss and damage are compensated for.
“We do not have a significant carbon footprint in the world. Yes, we do have a significant carbon sink in the world. But yet still, after this hurricane has passed, who’s going to have to pay for the recovery, reconstruction and for normalizing the lives of my people?” Davis said in a video interview.
Climate justice fights for solutions to the climate crisis that would result in reduced emissions and industrialized rich nations sharing the burden of the crisis by helping SIDS handle the severe effects of climate change.
Swain lost his home during Hurricane Dorian and there are others who also lost their homes and some are still living in trailers in Abaco.
Without insurance, Swain is rebuilding his home, but the progress is slow.
He explained that the Disaster Reconstruction Authority and other NGOs promised to help him, but they haven’t delivered on their promises as yet.
“We will, out of pocket, try to do some things to get us along,” Swain said.
Hurricane Dorian caused a housing shortage in Abaco and the demand for a home is great.
According to Swain, because of the demand and desperation to find a home, the rent in Abaco is skyrocketing.
“You can find the average apartment, two bedroom, going for no less than $1,500. In some instances it’s over $2,000,” he said.
After negotiations and hearing the pleas of Small Island Developing States, COP27 closed with the announcement of a loss and damage fund to compensate countries impacted by climate change. This is a huge step in the fight for climate justice.
This story was published with the support of Climate Tracker’s Caribbean Climate Justice Journalism Fellowship.
Member, The Bahamas Press Club 2014
Caption: Flooding in Abaco caused by Hurricane Nicole. (Photo/Abaco resident)
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