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Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory

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#Miami,FL, September 28, 2018 – USA – This is a Tropical Storm Advisory from the  National Hurricane Center in Miami FL

 

…KIRK MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BUT ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS STILL SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION

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LOCATION…13.2N 62.5W

ABOUT 110 MI…175 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA

ABOUT 145 MI…230 KM SW OF MARTINIQUE

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:  None.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Barbados

* St. Lucia

* Dominica

* Martinique

* Guadeloupe

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

 

These watches and warnings will likely be gradually discontinued later today.  Interest elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor the progress of Kirk. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 62.5 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. On the forecast track, Kirk’s center, or its remnants, will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the next 2 or 3 days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.  Kirk is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today or Saturday, and then degenerate into a trough of low pressure.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are still occurring over portions of the warning area and should continue to spread across the remainder of the warning area today.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area during the next several hours.  Locally higher winds are likely atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains.

 

RAINFALL:  Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica.  These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.  Across Saint Croix and eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches today and Saturday.

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

Forecaster Avila

 

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News

California Flooding, but so much of the State in drought

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By Dana Malcolm 

Staff Writer 

 

 

#USA, March 13, 2023 – California residents are facing their tenth atmospheric river in three months and already a river has burst its banks sending 8, 000 scrambling out of their homes to safety. But as the sunny West Coast state floods and floods, 84 percent of it is classified as being under drought conditions.

Extended periods of drought damage microbes in the soil that break down organic matter,  layers of organic matter can then become like a waxy film on top of soil, this can in turn make the solid hydrophobic or water repellent.

The Department of Agriculture and Food in Australia (which deals with drought regularly) says water repellency results in poor water infiltration, variable soil wetting, increased erosion risk and reduced and delayed crop, pasture and weed establishment.

This means among other consequences, instead of seeping into parched earth quickly, the water takes much longer to penetrate,  and heavy rain can induce severe flooding. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says much like a river is water moving over land, an atmospheric river is a stream of water vapor moving in the sky. When that unleashes it can cause flooding. Even more so when the area has been in a months-long drought like California.

In addition between the first nine atmospheric rivers which happened in January and December there has been very little precipitation, the majority of rain coming in these heavy extreme bursts that are often deadly

This isn’t to say the rain hasn’t helped. The atmospheric rivers have pushed the state out of extreme drought into atmospheric and moderate drought stages which are slightly better. So far at least two people have died in the March rains and 20 were killed in January. Currently more that 50,000 people are without power.

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News

Late Winter Storms in the US and Canada

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By Dana Malcolm 

Staff Writer 

 

 

February 24, 2023 – Over a thousand flights have been cancelled; a thousand more delayed and vehicular travel is being labelled ‘unadvisable’ in some parts of the US as a massive late winter storm fueled by arctic front barrels across the West and MidWest of the country.

The National Weather Service is warning of moderate and major impacts to come in the worst-hit areas with dangerous to impossible driving conditions and widespread closures and disruptions to infrastructure.

The storm is expected to last for at least days going into Friday and produce record-breaking low temperatures. Nearly all of the western US will be affected. Snow is expected to pile up very quickly, as much as two inches of the white stuff per hour.

In Canada, Ontario and Toronto have already begun to see below-zero temperatures and light snow which is expected to pick up by Thursday.  The cities are rushing to get warming centres open for those who need them as the temperatures are predicted to get even more biting overnight.

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Caribbean News

Surprise Low Pressure System in Atlantic Basin

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By Dana Malcolm 

Staff Writer 

 

January 20, 2023 – A month and a half after the end of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane season and five and a half months before the 2023 season is scheduled to begin, a new storm system formed and was under watch by the National Hurricane Center.

A Special Tropical Weather Outlook was issued around 10:05 am on Monday (January 16) by the US National Hurricane Center to discuss the potential for subtropical development over the northwest Atlantic.

The non-tropical low pressure system was centered in the northwest about 300 miles north of Bermuda and is producing storm-force winds and thunderstorm activity near the center.

The system has been forecast to move into much colder waters across Atlantic Canada by early Tuesday making it is unlikely that it will become a subtropical or tropical cyclone.

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