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NOAA Predicts Active 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Warm Waters and Favorable Conditions Could Fuel Strong Storms

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Washington, D.C. — Federal weather experts are forecasting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, with warm ocean temperatures and low wind shear among the key factors creating conditions ripe for storm formation.

In its seasonal outlook released Wednesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a 60% chance of an above-average hurricane season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 10% chance of below-normal activity. The season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.

Forecasters anticipate between 13 to 19 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes. Up to 3 to 5 are expected to reach major hurricane status—Category 3 or higher—with winds of at least 111 mph. NOAA says it has 70% confidence in these projections.

“This year’s outlook should serve as a call to action,” said Ken Graham, Director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “We urge everyone to prepare now—before a storm is on the horizon.”

Favorable Climate Conditions for a Busy Season

Several climate patterns are converging to create a more active-than-usual season. Chief among them: warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, which provide energy to fuel storm systems. Additionally, weaker upper-level winds and a potentially enhanced West African monsoon are expected to support more frequent and intense tropical waves—often the precursors to Atlantic hurricanes.

“This is the type of environment that allows storms to develop and intensify more easily,” explained Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “We saw last year how hurricanes can cause destruction far inland, not just along the coast. Our mission is to help communities prepare and stay safe.”

Grimm noted that hurricanes Helene and Debby in 2024 brought significant inland flooding, underscoring the wide-ranging impact these storms can have.

Technology and Forecasting Upgrades for 2025

This hurricane season also marks the introduction of several upgrades to NOAA’s forecasting tools:

  • The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System is being enhanced to improve storm track and intensity predictions by another 5%, improving the accuracy of early warnings.
  • For the first time, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be able to issue advisory products up to 72 hours in advance of expected storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds—giving communities more time to prepare.
  • The Global Tropical Hazards Outlook, which forecasts tropical cyclone risks, now extends its range from two to three weeks ahead, giving emergency planners more lead time.

Stronger Public Communication and Spanish-Language Services

In an effort to reach more communities, the NHC will expand its Spanish-language products for the 2025 season. These include advisories, updates, discussions, and key messages designed to keep Spanish-speaking populations better informed.

Also returning this year is the experimental version of the forecast cone graphic, which now highlights inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, and identifies areas where hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are active simultaneously.

In coastal areas, a new rip current risk map will be available when an active tropical system is present, based on data from local weather offices.

New Radar Tech and Flood Forecasting Tools

For the 2025 season, NOAA is introducing ROARS, an experimental electronically scanning radar system aboard its P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft. The technology will allow scientists to gather new data on wind patterns and ocean wave behavior underneath developing storms.

Meanwhile, the Weather Prediction Center’s Probabilistic Precipitation Portal, a user-friendly forecasting tool for rainfall and flooding, will offer three-day outlooks—a critical resource after Hurricane Helene dropped over 30 inches of rain in parts of North Carolina last year.

Be Ready, Not Caught Off Guard

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that NOAA’s investments in research and forecasting models are improving preparedness nationwide. “With these tools, we’ve never been more equipped to face a hurricane season,” he said.

While NOAA’s forecast speaks to overall activity and not where or when storms may strike, the agency urges all residents in hurricane-prone areas to review emergency plans, gather supplies, and stay alert throughout the season.

An updated outlook will be issued in early August, ahead of the historical peak of Atlantic hurricane activity.

Caribbean News

Royal Caribbean Group and Sandals Resorts Announce Landmark Partnership to Accelerate Their Leading Vacation Experiences

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Royal Caribbean Group Investment to Advance Sandals and Beaches’ Growth and Broaden the Group’s Vacation Portfolio

Montego Bay, Jamaica and Miami, September 24, 2026 – Royal Caribbean Group (NYSE: RCL) and Sandals Resorts today announced the signing of an agreement to form a partnership in the all-inclusive resort space with a 50% investment from Royal Caribbean Group.  Building on Sandals and Beaches Resorts’ more than four decades of leadership in Caribbean hospitality, the joint venture will create new opportunities for continued resort growth while broadening the experiences across Royal Caribbean Group’s vacation platform.

The partnership brings together two of the travel industry’s most celebrated vacation companies, pairing Sandals and Beaches’ all-inclusive resort expertise with Royal Caribbean Group’s vacation platform, including industry-leading brands – Royal Caribbean, Celebrity Cruises and Silversea – a portfolio of private destinations, new river cruising offering, and an industry-first loyalty program. United in a shared history in the Caribbean and connected by a love for their communities, the companies will offer travelers an unparalleled collection of cruise, private destination and resort experiences, serving guests across more vacation occasions and establishing their undisputed leadership in Caribbean vacations.

The joint venture expands Royal Caribbean Group into an adjacent vacation category, growing its participation in the approximately $2 trillion global vacation market, and meets the growing global demand for Sandals and Beaches Resorts by accelerating their expansion. The partnership will include Sandals and Beaches’ collection of premier all-inclusive properties across the Caribbean, and the companies will explore opportunities to broaden distribution, deepen guest engagement, and make it easier for travelers to discover vacation experiences offered across both portfolios.

“For nearly 60 years, we’ve reimagined what a vacation can be, constantly expanding the ways we inspire our guests to explore, connect and create lifelong memories,” said Jason Liberty, Chairman and CEO, Royal Caribbean Group. “We have been building a vacation platform that brings joy to millions of people around the world and creates meaningful relationships that last with our guests. Our partnership with Sandals and Beaches Resorts is an important next step on that journey – bringing together two iconic leading vacation companies to further strengthen and grow one of the most admired resort portfolios in the world. The Stewart family has created powerful and beloved brands, and we are honored to build on that legacy. Together, we see tremendous opportunity to expand the reach of Sandals and Beaches Resorts and continue turning the vacation of a lifetime into a lifetime of vacations.”

“My father, Gordon ‘Butch’ Stewart, founded Sandals Resorts with the belief that a company built in the Caribbean could stand on the world stage alongside the most respected names in hospitality. Today is proof of how far that vision can go,” said Adam Stewart, Executive Chairman of Sandals Resorts and Beaches Resorts. “This partnership is the natural next step in building on that conviction. It gives us the ability to grow faster with a partner that shares our values of exceptional hospitality, long-term investment, and the power of enduring brands. Together, we will introduce more guests to Sandals and Beaches Resorts while creating even more extraordinary experiences for those who have made our resorts part of their lives for decades.” Stewart added, “As we continue to grow, we will remain true to what has always defined us: delivering authentic vacations that exceed expectations while creating opportunities for our team members, travel advisor partners and the communities we call home. The future has never been brighter, and I know this moment would make my father incredibly proud.”

The joint venture will be governed by a board under the shared leadership of Stewart and Liberty. Stewart will maintain a leadership role in guiding the company’s long-term strategic growth as Executive Chairman of Sandals and Beaches Resorts. Existing reservations, loyalty programs, resort operations and cruise operations will continue as usual, with the partnership bringing additional resources to support future opportunities.

Under the terms of the agreement, Royal Caribbean Group will acquire a 50% equity interest in Sandals and Beaches Resorts for approximately $3 billion, representing a forward EBITDA multiple of approximately 10x.  Royal Caribbean Group has secured committed debt financing from Morgan Stanley to fund the investment.  The transaction is expected to close in early 2027, subject to customary approvals and closing conditions, and is expected to be accretive to earnings next year.

BofA Securities and PJT Partners acted as financial advisors, and Latham & Watkins and Jones Day acted as legal advisors to the Sandals Group. Perella Weinberg Partners and Morgan Stanley acted as financial advisors and Kirkland & Ellis LLP acted as legal advisor to Royal Caribbean Group.

PHOTO CAPTION: Jason Liberty, Chairman and CEO of Royal Caribbean Group, and Adam Stewart, Executive Chairman of Sandals Resorts, mark the signing of an agreement to form a landmark partnership that expands Royal Caribbean Group into the all-inclusive resort space and supports the future growth of Sandals and Beaches Resorts. The signing took place at Royal Caribbean Group’s new headquarters in Miami, with the city’s skyline in the background.

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Caribbean News

Royal Caribbean Signs US$3-Billion Deal for Half of Sandals and Beaches

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The Caribbean tourism deal first reported as a possibility on Tuesday is now a signed agreement. Royal Caribbean Group plans to pay approximately US$3 billion for a 50% stake in Sandals and Beaches Resorts, putting the value of the business at about US$6 billion. The purchase is expected to close in early 2027, subject to approvals.

Founded in Jamaica by the late Gordon “Butch” Stewart in 1981, the resort business has a presence across nine Caribbean destinations, including Jamaica, The Bahamas and Turks and Caicos. Sandals has described its workforce as nearly 20,000 people, most of them Caribbean nationals.

“My father, Gordon ‘Butch’ Stewart, founded Sandals Resorts with the belief that a company built in the Caribbean could stand on the world stage alongside the most respected names in hospitality,” said Adam Stewart in the announcement carried by PR Newswire. He will remain executive chairman, while the Stewart family retains a stake. The companies say existing reservations and resort operations will continue as usual.

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Caribbean News

Pres Ali declares three days of national mourning following MV Barima tragedy July 21, 2026

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His Excellency Dr Mohamed Irfaan Ali has declared three days of national mourning following the tragic loss of lives in the M.V. Barima incident, as the nation continues to grieve alongside the families and communities affected.

The period of national mourning will be observed from Wednesday, July 22, through Friday, July 24, 2026, in honour of the victims of the tragedy. During this time, the National Flag will be flown at half-mast on all Government buildings and other appropriate locations across the country.

As part of the observances, Wednesday, July 22, has been designated a National Day of Prayer. A National Day of Prayer and Remembrance will be held at the Kingston Seawall in Georgetown, bringing together citizens in solidarity to honour the lives lost and offer support to grieving families.

The programme of remembrance will continue with a Night of Reflection and Prayer in Port Kaituma on Thursday, July 23, followed by another observance in Mabaruma on Friday, July 24.

The government is also encouraging religious organisations, civic groups and citizens throughout Guyana to organise candlelight vigils and moments of prayer during the three days as the nation collectively reflects on the tragedy and pays tribute to the victims. The declaration of national mourning underscores the government’s commitment to standing with the bereaved families and affected communities as Guyana mourns one of the country’s most heartbreaking maritime tragedies.

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