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NOAA Predicts Active 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Warm Waters and Favorable Conditions Could Fuel Strong Storms

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Washington, D.C. — Federal weather experts are forecasting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, with warm ocean temperatures and low wind shear among the key factors creating conditions ripe for storm formation.

In its seasonal outlook released Wednesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a 60% chance of an above-average hurricane season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 10% chance of below-normal activity. The season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.

Forecasters anticipate between 13 to 19 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes. Up to 3 to 5 are expected to reach major hurricane status—Category 3 or higher—with winds of at least 111 mph. NOAA says it has 70% confidence in these projections.

“This year’s outlook should serve as a call to action,” said Ken Graham, Director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “We urge everyone to prepare now—before a storm is on the horizon.”

Favorable Climate Conditions for a Busy Season

Several climate patterns are converging to create a more active-than-usual season. Chief among them: warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, which provide energy to fuel storm systems. Additionally, weaker upper-level winds and a potentially enhanced West African monsoon are expected to support more frequent and intense tropical waves—often the precursors to Atlantic hurricanes.

“This is the type of environment that allows storms to develop and intensify more easily,” explained Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “We saw last year how hurricanes can cause destruction far inland, not just along the coast. Our mission is to help communities prepare and stay safe.”

Grimm noted that hurricanes Helene and Debby in 2024 brought significant inland flooding, underscoring the wide-ranging impact these storms can have.

Technology and Forecasting Upgrades for 2025

This hurricane season also marks the introduction of several upgrades to NOAA’s forecasting tools:

  • The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System is being enhanced to improve storm track and intensity predictions by another 5%, improving the accuracy of early warnings.
  • For the first time, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be able to issue advisory products up to 72 hours in advance of expected storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds—giving communities more time to prepare.
  • The Global Tropical Hazards Outlook, which forecasts tropical cyclone risks, now extends its range from two to three weeks ahead, giving emergency planners more lead time.

Stronger Public Communication and Spanish-Language Services

In an effort to reach more communities, the NHC will expand its Spanish-language products for the 2025 season. These include advisories, updates, discussions, and key messages designed to keep Spanish-speaking populations better informed.

Also returning this year is the experimental version of the forecast cone graphic, which now highlights inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, and identifies areas where hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are active simultaneously.

In coastal areas, a new rip current risk map will be available when an active tropical system is present, based on data from local weather offices.

New Radar Tech and Flood Forecasting Tools

For the 2025 season, NOAA is introducing ROARS, an experimental electronically scanning radar system aboard its P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft. The technology will allow scientists to gather new data on wind patterns and ocean wave behavior underneath developing storms.

Meanwhile, the Weather Prediction Center’s Probabilistic Precipitation Portal, a user-friendly forecasting tool for rainfall and flooding, will offer three-day outlooks—a critical resource after Hurricane Helene dropped over 30 inches of rain in parts of North Carolina last year.

Be Ready, Not Caught Off Guard

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that NOAA’s investments in research and forecasting models are improving preparedness nationwide. “With these tools, we’ve never been more equipped to face a hurricane season,” he said.

While NOAA’s forecast speaks to overall activity and not where or when storms may strike, the agency urges all residents in hurricane-prone areas to review emergency plans, gather supplies, and stay alert throughout the season.

An updated outlook will be issued in early August, ahead of the historical peak of Atlantic hurricane activity.

Caribbean News

Sandals Foundation and CDEMA Celebrate Success of 3-Year Leadership Development Programme

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MEDIA RELEASE

 

REGIONAL, JUNE 11, 2025 – Forty-five (45) Senior Officers from three cohorts at the National Disaster Organisations (NDOs) and National Emergency Sectors in seventeen (17) Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency (CDEMA) Participating States have benefited from a Strategic Leadership Development training programme that is in its third year, building their capacity and advancing disaster preparedness and response across the Caribbean.

As we enter the Atlantic Hurricane Season (June 1 – November 30), Senior Officers from Anguilla, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, , Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia , Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands and British Virgin Islands have been equipped with strategic leadership skills to enhance their ability to develop and implement disaster preparedness plans, coordinate and manage emergency responses, and support recovery efforts to strengthen their coordination, communication, and leadership in times of emergency.

Taking a holistic approach to Disaster Risk Management, the intensive programme enhances leadership skills through six (6) courses over a six-month period with modules in Leadership, Strategic Management, Project Management, Financial Management, Proposal Writing, and Crisis Communication and Incident Management.

In partnership with Sandals Foundation and the Arthur Lok Jack Global School of Business (ALJGSB) at the St. Augustine Campus of the University of the West Indies (UWI), the carefully curated curriculum successfully used interactive lectures, one-on-one coaching, and psychometric assessment to enhance officers’ approach to community wellbeing before, during and after a natural hazard.

Gayle Drakes, Education and Training Specialist at CDEMA, said, “The preventative approach to Disaster Risk Management at CDEMA is risk-reduction centred, emphasising an understanding of hazard exposure, vulnerabilities and capacities, and styling appropriate interventions for building more resilient communities.”

“By completing this three year programme with the Sandals Foundation, our region’s Senior Officers now have enhanced knowledge in advanced level competencies, all aimed at promoting our Comprehensive Disaster Management agenda [an integrated approach to risk management],” Drakes added.

“CDEMA is proud to have collaborated with the Sandals Foundation and the Arthur Lok Jack Global School of Business on this initiative to strengthen the foundation of national and regional resilience. As we enter the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, we are confident that this cadre of professionals is better equipped to lead preparedness, response, and recovery efforts that result in safeguarding lives and livelihoods throughout the Caribbean.” said Executive Director of CDEMA, Elizabeth Riley.

Sandals Foundation, for its part, provided necessary funding to implement the programme for its three-year duration, valued at some US $150,000. Heidi Clarke, Executive Director at Sandals Foundation, says she is optimistic about the future for both NDO Officers and the citizens of the Caribbean.

“Improved Disaster Risk Management starts with our leaders. A holistic approach starts with education and training. When we equip our leaders with the resources they need, we feel confident in their ability to guide us toward a culture of preparedness and awareness, especially in the face of natural hazards,” said Clarke.

The Sandals Foundation has routinely partnered with organisations that promote disaster preparedness and building resilience across the Caribbean – training NDO Officers and small business operators, and educating youth and community members in safety protocols and disaster mitigation and prevention. Some of its partners to date have included the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) in Jamaica, and the Youth Emergency Action Committee (YEAC) in Grenada.

 

Header: In partnership with Sandals Foundation and the Arthur Lok Jack Global School of Business, 45 Senior Officers in 17 Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency Participating States have benefited from a Strategic Leadership Development training programme, building their capacity and advancing disaster preparedness and response across the Caribbean.

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Caribbean News

CTO Chairman: “An Exciting Time” as Caribbean Week 2025 Wraps with Strong Momentum

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Ian Gooding-Edghill, CTO Chairman and Barbados Minister of Tourism and International Transport

NEW YORK (June 9, 2025) – Caribbean Week in New York (CWNY 2025) concluded on Thursday with high praise from Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO) Chairman Ian Gooding-Edghill, who declared the 2025 edition a powerful testament to regional unity, strategic vision, and forward-thinking leadership.

“This is my first Caribbean Week as Chairman of the CTO and based on all the feedback we received, it went extremely well,” said Gooding-Edghill, who also serves as Minister of Tourism and International Transport for Barbados. “We are certainly delighted that we’ve had so many participants (over 200) registered. It also tells us that the organization is going in the right direction.”

Held under the theme “Caribbean Resilience: Crafting Tomorrow’s Tourism”, the week brought together tourism leaders, cultural influencers and media stakeholders for a series of high-level discussions, workshops, and networking events focused on shaping the region’s tourism future.

One of the event’s highlights was the Council of Ministers and Commissioners Meeting. “We were in the session for just over four hours, which speaks to the value of the contributions at that meeting. We’ve also specifically laid out additional work that the CTO will have to undertake on (behalf of members),” said Minister Gooding-Edghill. Andrea Franklin, CEO of Barbados Tourism Marketing Inc., presided over the Board of Directors meeting as Chairman of the CTO Board.

Gooding-Edghill emphasized the importance of robust research and data in strategic planning. “Research plays a significant role in our day-to-day business … and we discussed how we can finetune and get additional data and metrics … and plan strategically to advance the Caribbean’s interests.”

Caribbean Week also marked the launch of the CTO’s Reimagine Plan (2025-2027), which seeks to provide CTO’s strategic direction for the next three years. It is anchored by five key pillars: advocacy, market competitiveness, tourism intelligence, sustainable and regenerative tourism, and people development.

“We will continue to focus on the Reimagine program. It’s an exciting time for us as CTO … ever so often you have to look back and you have to look internally and see where you are and where you want to go … and that is the Reimagine plan for us,” said Chairman Gooding-Edghill.

The CTO Chairman also highlighted the increasing engagement of CTO’s Allied Members, emphasizing their crucial role in promoting destinations and supporting the broader Caribbean tourism sector. He commended their contributions during the dedicated forum “Beyond Borders: Positioning the Caribbean Tourism Industry in a Shifting Travel Landscape”, noting that the discussions were insightful and highly relevant to the industry’s current challenges.

The Chairman also addressed intra-regional travel, acknowledging progress and the work ahead. “Connectivity within the Caribbean continues to be a challenge … we have to ensure that we improve connectivity and there is a CTO Airlift Committee … tasked with not only bringing solutions to the table, but also making recommendations so we can advance greater connectivity.”

Looking ahead to the 2025 State of the Tourism Industry Conference (SOTIC) in Barbados, slated for the Fall, Gooding-Edghill signaled that connectivity, tourism growth, and economic linkages will be central to discussions. “The only way you can grow your tourism business is by increasing spend or by driving additional traffic to the destination, and we believe in both,” he said. “And of course, ensuring that we have a strong linkages program with the agriculture, manufacturing sectors within the Caribbean so that we can retain more of the foreign exchange that is spent within the Caribbean.”

Reflecting on the broader impact of the week, the Chairman noted that one of the key takeaways was the opportunity for professionals across the industry to connect and exchange ideas. He emphasized that beyond networking, the event offered valuable insights into emerging trends, with the diversity of panelists and speakers highlighting CTO’s forward-looking vision.

“I extend heartfelt thanks to Minister Ian Gooding-Edghill and CEO Andrea Franklin for their outstanding leadership throughout Caribbean Week in New York,” stated CTO Secretary-General & CEO Dona Regis-Prosper. “Their vision, energy and commitment to advancing regional collaboration and sustainable growth were evident in every aspect of this year’s event. We are charting a bold and inclusive path forward for Caribbean tourism, and the success of Caribbean Week 2025 reflects the strength of that direction.”

CWNY 2025 was supported by the following sponsors:

  • Platinum: Dominica, U.S. Virgin Islands
  • Gold: Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Bermuda, Global Ports Holding, Travel & Adventure Shows
  • Silver: Sandals Resorts International, St. Kitts

• Bronze: Adara, A RateGain Company; Anguilla; Barbados; Carnival Corporation & plc; Saint Lucia; TEMPO Networks

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Bahamas News

Haiti Named in New U.S. Travel Ban Amid National Security Concerns

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Deandrea Hamilton | Editor

 

NASSAU, Bahamas — Haiti, a Caribbean nation and founding member of CARICOM, is among a dozen countries now facing full travel restrictions to the United States under a sweeping proclamation issued by former U.S. President Donald J. Trump.  The move, which revives and expands the controversial travel ban first introduced during Trump’s initial term, cites national security and immigration risks as justification.

According to the White House, Haiti was added to the list due to high visa overstay rates—over 31% for tourist visas and 25% for student and exchange categories—as well as the country’s ongoing instability.  U.S. authorities say Haiti lacks a centralized authority capable of sharing reliable law enforcement or identity data, and the recent surge of Haitian nationals entering the U.S. illegally during the Biden administration has raised additional alarms in Washington.

“Hundreds of thousands of illegal Haitian aliens flooded into the United States during the Biden Administration,” the Proclamation states, linking the influx to public safety and security risks.  The administration further argues that Haiti’s inability to manage travel documents and lack of vetting protocols undermines U.S. border control efforts.

President Trump’s order, issued under Executive Order 14161, restricts entry from 12 countries deemed to have failed key vetting and cooperation standards.  Alongside Haiti, nations such as Afghanistan, Iran, Libya, and Somalia are now subject to full bans. Another seven countries—including Cuba and Venezuela—face partial restrictions.

The renewed travel ban has sparked concern across the region, particularly in Caribbean circles where questions arise over its diplomatic implications.  While exceptions exist for certain visa categories and individuals deemed to serve U.S. national interests, the Proclamation sends a strong signal about the administration’s revived hardline stance on immigration and border security.

Trump has declared the move necessary to “keep America safe” and “combat terrorism through common-sense security standards.”

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