Caribbean News
NOAA Predicts Active 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Warm Waters and Favorable Conditions Could Fuel Strong Storms
Washington, D.C. — Federal weather experts are forecasting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, with warm ocean temperatures and low wind shear among the key factors creating conditions ripe for storm formation.
In its seasonal outlook released Wednesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a 60% chance of an above-average hurricane season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 10% chance of below-normal activity. The season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
Forecasters anticipate between 13 to 19 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes. Up to 3 to 5 are expected to reach major hurricane status—Category 3 or higher—with winds of at least 111 mph. NOAA says it has 70% confidence in these projections.
“This year’s outlook should serve as a call to action,” said Ken Graham, Director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “We urge everyone to prepare now—before a storm is on the horizon.”
Favorable Climate Conditions for a Busy Season
Several climate patterns are converging to create a more active-than-usual season. Chief among them: warmer-than-average sea
surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, which provide energy to fuel storm systems. Additionally, weaker upper-level winds and a potentially enhanced West African monsoon are expected to support more frequent and intense tropical waves—often the precursors to Atlantic hurricanes.
“This is the type of environment that allows storms to develop and intensify more easily,” explained Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “We saw last year how hurricanes can cause destruction far inland, not just along the coast. Our mission is to help communities prepare and stay safe.”
Grimm noted that hurricanes Helene and Debby in 2024 brought significant inland flooding, underscoring the wide-ranging impact these storms can have.
Technology and Forecasting Upgrades for 2025
This hurricane season also marks the introduction of several upgrades to NOAA’s forecasting tools:
- The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System is being enhanced to improve storm track and intensity predictions by another 5%, improving the accuracy of early warnings.
- For the first time, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be able to issue advisory products up to 72 hours in advance of expected storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds—giving communities more time to prepare.
- The Global Tropical Hazards Outlook, which forecasts tropical cyclone risks, now extends its range from two to three weeks ahead, giving emergency planners more lead time.
Stronger Public Communication and Spanish-Language Services
In an effort to reach more communities, the NHC will expand its Spanish-language products for the 2025 season. These include advisories, updates, discussions, and key messages designed to keep Spanish-speaking populations better informed.
Also returning this year is the experimental version of the forecast cone graphic, which now highlights inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, and identifies areas where hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are active simultaneously.
In coastal areas, a new rip current risk map will be available when an active tropical system is present, based on data from local weather offices.
New Radar Tech and Flood Forecasting Tools
For the 2025 season, NOAA is introducing ROARS, an experimental electronically scanning radar system aboard its P-3 hurricane hunter
aircraft. The technology will allow scientists to gather new data on wind patterns and ocean wave behavior underneath developing storms.
Meanwhile, the Weather Prediction Center’s Probabilistic Precipitation Portal, a user-friendly forecasting tool for rainfall and flooding, will offer three-day outlooks—a critical resource after Hurricane Helene dropped over 30 inches of rain in parts of North Carolina last year.
Be Ready, Not Caught Off Guard
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that NOAA’s investments in research and forecasting models are improving preparedness nationwide. “With these tools, we’ve never been more equipped to face a hurricane season,” he said.
While NOAA’s forecast speaks to overall activity and not where or when storms may strike, the agency urges all residents in hurricane-prone areas to review emergency plans, gather supplies, and stay alert throughout the season.
An updated outlook will be issued in early August, ahead of the historical peak of Atlantic hurricane activity.
By Deandrea Hamilton | Magnetic Media
October 14, 2025 – It’s being called political theatre — but for citizens, constitutional watchdogs, and democracy advocates across the Caribbean, it feels far more serious. Within a single week, two national parliaments — in Trinidad and Tobago and St. Kitts and Nevis — descended into turmoil as opposition members stormed out in protest, accusing their Speakers of bias, overreach, and abuse of parliamentary procedure.
For observers, the walkouts signal a deeper problem: erosion of trust in the very institutions meant to safeguard democracy. When Speakers are viewed as political enforcers instead of neutral referees, parliaments stop functioning as chambers of debate and start performing as stages for power and spectacle — with citizens left wondering who, if anyone, is still accountable.
October 6: St. Kitts Parliament Erupts
The first walkout erupted in Basseterre on October 6, 2025, when Dr. Timothy Harris, former Prime Minister and now Opposition Leader,
led his team out of the St. Kitts and Nevis National Assembly in a protest that stunned the chamber.
The flashpoint came as the Speaker moved to approve more than three years’ worth of unratified parliamentary minutes in one sitting — covering 27 meetings and three national budgets — without individual review or debate.
Dr. Harris called the move “a flagrant breach of the Constitution and parliamentary tradition,” warning that the practice undermines transparency and accountability. “No serious parliament can go years without approving a single set of minutes,” he said after exiting the chamber.
The Speaker defended the decision as administrative housekeeping, but critics were unconvinced, branding the move a “world record disgrace.” The opposition’s walkout triggered renewed calls for the Speaker’s resignation and sparked a wider public discussion about record-keeping, accountability, and respect for parliamentary norms in St. Kitts and Nevis.
October 10: Trinidad Opposition Follows Suit
Four days later, on October 10, 2025, the Opposition United National Congress (UNC) in Trinidad and Tobago staged its own walkout from the House of Representatives in Port of Spain.
The UNC accused the Speaker of partisan bias, claiming she had repeatedly blocked urgent questions, ignored points of order, and allowed government members to breach standing orders without consequence.
“The Speaker has failed in her duty to act impartially,” the Opposition declared in a statement. “Parliament is not the property of any political party or Presiding Officer.”
The dramatic exit was seen as a culmination of months of rising tension and frustration, with opposition MPs arguing that parliamentary rules were being selectively applied to silence dissenting voices.
Political analyst Dr. Marcia Ferdinand described the twin walkouts as “a warning sign that parliamentary democracy in the Caribbean is teetering on the edge of performative politics.”
“When chairs become political shields rather than constitutional referees,” she said, “democracy becomes theatre, not governance.”
A Pattern Emerging
While St. Kitts and Trinidad are very different political environments, both incidents point to the same regional fault line: the perception that Speakers — the guardians of parliamentary order — are no longer impartial.
In Westminster-style systems like those across the Caribbean, the Speaker’s authority depends not on power but on public confidence in fairness. Once that credibility erodes, parliamentary control collapses into confrontation.
Governance experts say the implications are serious: eroded trust between government and opposition, declining public confidence in state institutions, and growing voter cynicism that “rules” are flexible tools of political advantage.
Why It Matters
Parliamentary walkouts are not new in the Caribbean, but what makes these recent events different is their frequency and intensity — and
the regional echo they’ve created. Social media has amplified images of lawmakers storming out, with citizens from Barbados to Belize questioning whether the same erosion of decorum could be happening in their own legislatures.
Analysts warn that if this perception takes hold, it risks diminishing the moral authority of parliamentary democracy itself.
“Once opposition MPs believe the rules are rigged, and once citizens believe Parliament is just performance,” said one Caribbean governance researcher, “you’ve lost the most valuable currency in democracy — trust.”
Restoring Balance
Political reformers across the region are calling for tighter Standing Order enforcement, independent parliamentary service commissions, and training to strengthen Speaker neutrality. Civil society leaders say the public must also play its part by demanding transparency and refusing to normalize partisan manipulation of parliamentary procedure.
Whether these twin walkouts become catalysts for reform — or simply another episode of Caribbean political theatre — will depend on what happens next inside those chambers.
For now, democracy watchers agree on one thing: when opposition leaders feel the only way to be heard is to walk out, the entire democratic house — not just its Speaker — is in danger of collapse.
Angle by Deandrea Hamilton. Built with ChatGPT (AI). Magnetic Media — CAPTURING LIFE.
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