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NOAA Predicts Active 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Warm Waters and Favorable Conditions Could Fuel Strong Storms

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Washington, D.C. — Federal weather experts are forecasting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, with warm ocean temperatures and low wind shear among the key factors creating conditions ripe for storm formation.

In its seasonal outlook released Wednesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a 60% chance of an above-average hurricane season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 10% chance of below-normal activity. The season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.

Forecasters anticipate between 13 to 19 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes. Up to 3 to 5 are expected to reach major hurricane status—Category 3 or higher—with winds of at least 111 mph. NOAA says it has 70% confidence in these projections.

“This year’s outlook should serve as a call to action,” said Ken Graham, Director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “We urge everyone to prepare now—before a storm is on the horizon.”

Favorable Climate Conditions for a Busy Season

Several climate patterns are converging to create a more active-than-usual season. Chief among them: warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, which provide energy to fuel storm systems. Additionally, weaker upper-level winds and a potentially enhanced West African monsoon are expected to support more frequent and intense tropical waves—often the precursors to Atlantic hurricanes.

“This is the type of environment that allows storms to develop and intensify more easily,” explained Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “We saw last year how hurricanes can cause destruction far inland, not just along the coast. Our mission is to help communities prepare and stay safe.”

Grimm noted that hurricanes Helene and Debby in 2024 brought significant inland flooding, underscoring the wide-ranging impact these storms can have.

Technology and Forecasting Upgrades for 2025

This hurricane season also marks the introduction of several upgrades to NOAA’s forecasting tools:

  • The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System is being enhanced to improve storm track and intensity predictions by another 5%, improving the accuracy of early warnings.
  • For the first time, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be able to issue advisory products up to 72 hours in advance of expected storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds—giving communities more time to prepare.
  • The Global Tropical Hazards Outlook, which forecasts tropical cyclone risks, now extends its range from two to three weeks ahead, giving emergency planners more lead time.

Stronger Public Communication and Spanish-Language Services

In an effort to reach more communities, the NHC will expand its Spanish-language products for the 2025 season. These include advisories, updates, discussions, and key messages designed to keep Spanish-speaking populations better informed.

Also returning this year is the experimental version of the forecast cone graphic, which now highlights inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, and identifies areas where hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are active simultaneously.

In coastal areas, a new rip current risk map will be available when an active tropical system is present, based on data from local weather offices.

New Radar Tech and Flood Forecasting Tools

For the 2025 season, NOAA is introducing ROARS, an experimental electronically scanning radar system aboard its P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft. The technology will allow scientists to gather new data on wind patterns and ocean wave behavior underneath developing storms.

Meanwhile, the Weather Prediction Center’s Probabilistic Precipitation Portal, a user-friendly forecasting tool for rainfall and flooding, will offer three-day outlooks—a critical resource after Hurricane Helene dropped over 30 inches of rain in parts of North Carolina last year.

Be Ready, Not Caught Off Guard

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that NOAA’s investments in research and forecasting models are improving preparedness nationwide. “With these tools, we’ve never been more equipped to face a hurricane season,” he said.

While NOAA’s forecast speaks to overall activity and not where or when storms may strike, the agency urges all residents in hurricane-prone areas to review emergency plans, gather supplies, and stay alert throughout the season.

An updated outlook will be issued in early August, ahead of the historical peak of Atlantic hurricane activity.

Caribbean News

Fighting the fungus foe of the beloved banana

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How Venezuelan farmers are learning to grow and live with a devastating plant disease

 

In the fields of Venezuela, where the banana has been for generations a symbol of sustenance and tradition, a shadow fell across the land. In 2023, Venezuela’s National Institute of Integral Agricultural Health (INSAI) declared a phytosanitary emergency: the fungus Fusarium Tropical Race 4 (TR4) (Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense tropical race 4; syn. Fusarium odoratissimum) had arrived in producing areas in the states of Aragua, Carabobo and Cojedes.

This fungus, considered a devastating disease of banana and plantain (Musaceae) trees, can remain in the soil for more than two decades, threatening production and the lives of those who depend on it.

In the state of Aragua in the north of the country, the Renacer community had been growing bananas and plantains on 20 hectares since 2018. Then Fusarium arrived.

“When the disease hit, the entire plantation began to deteriorate. We refused to ‘die’ with the trees because that was our livelihood. The visits of INSAI confirmed that we had to chop down the banana trees. I cried a lot because I had worked with my banana trees for years,” recalls woman farmer, Lesbia Margarita García, with a broken voice.

In response, INSAI implemented measures to eliminate the affected plantations and improve the soil health by changing to other crops that allow agricultural production to recover. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) offered assistance by providing corn seeds, tools, biosecurity inputs and training, with teams of experts helping farmers to start again.

“Planting corn, thanks to the INSAI-FAO programme, gave us a harvest that benefited everyone. We have been improving the soil,” says Lesbia Margarita with a smile. “Now we rotate crops, observe soil health and have learned how to use natural fertilizers. Expert assistance has been key.”

The pilot project works directly with affected producers in high-risk areas, promoting alternative crops such as cereals and vegetables, delivering inputs and tools to mitigate damage and applying biosecurity measures for safe and effective containment.

“Beyond the corn received, we have already planted cassava, chili peppers, beans and pumpkin. We hope that by the end of the year [2025] we will be diversified and that each season we will have something to sell. These lands do not give up,” says Lesbia Margarita with conviction.

The Renacer community is beginning to see fruits. Their products are reaching local markets, generating income and rebuilding their livelihoods.

Key actions to manage Fusarium TR4 are ongoing, including regular monitoring, continuous training, inter‑institutional coordination, updates to the national plan, information campaigns and producer impact assessments. INSAI is sustaining regulatory, surveillance measures and training —with FAO support—as part of a comprehensive long‑term strategy.

At the global level, FAO supports awareness raising, capacity building and international collaboration in the fight against Fusarium TR4 by facilitating the World Banana Forum and its Global Network on TR4.

“The objective is for countries to strengthen their operational and technical capacity, articulating actions between the public sector, the private sector and family farmers,” says Raixa Llauger, FAO Agriculture Officer in Mesoamerica. “FAO and local partners have promoted this approach in Venezuela.”

As an essential part of the activities, a comprehensive training programme was developed with activities that taught farmers how to identify the disease contain it and protect crops. In addition, FAO has distributed laboratory equipment, biosecurity tools and a multispectral drone to INSAI. Drones are an efficient and cost‑effective tool for phytosanitary surveillance, offering rapid, high‑resolution monitoring and early detection of plant pests and diseases.

Overall, the project strengthened biosecurity measures against the Fusarium fungus through the adoption of the National Action Plan and the establishment of partnerships with national and international institutions. In addition, the pilot initiative supporting smallholder farmers in key production areas and a nationwide awareness campaign with broad outreach improved surveillance, diagnosis and phytosanitary response capacities across the country.

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Caribbean News

Widow’s Testimony Recounts Night Haiti President Was Killed

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MIAMI, Florida — Emotional testimony from Martine Moïse, the widow of assassinated Haitian President Jovenel Moïse, has given jurors in a U.S. federal courtroom a chilling account of the night gunmen stormed the presidential residence and killed the country’s leader.

Martine Moïse took the stand this week in Miami as part of the ongoing trial of several men accused of helping plan and finance the July 7, 2021 assassination, a crime that plunged Haiti into political crisis and remains only partially solved.

She told the court that armed men forced their way into the president’s private home in the hills above Port-au-Prince during the early morning hours, firing multiple shots at her husband while she lay beside him. She testified that she was also wounded in the attack and survived by pretending to be dead until the gunmen left the room.

According to prosecutors, the plot involved a group of foreign mercenaries, including former Colombian soldiers, along with Haitian and Haitian-American suspects. Investigators say some of the men believed the mission was to detain the president, but the operation turned into an assassination.

The Miami trial is focusing on the alleged role of South Florida businessmen and others accused of organizing or financing the plan, part of a wider international investigation that has stretched across several countries.

More than four years after the killing, the question of who ultimately ordered the assassination remains unanswered, with suspects still in custody in both Haiti and the United States as the case continues to unfold.

Angle by Deandrea Hamilton. Built with ChatGPT (AI). Magnetic Media — CAPTURING LIFE.

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Jamaica Joins Afreximbank Agreement, Strengthening Africa–Caribbean Partnership

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CARIBBEAN — Jamaica has become the 13th CARICOM member state to accede to the African Export-Import Bank Establishment Agreement, further strengthening economic ties between Africa and the Caribbean.

The development was confirmed during the 50th CARICOM Heads of Government Meeting, where an Afreximbank delegation led by George Elombi and Kanayo Awani met with Jamaica’s Prime Minister Andrew Holness to advance cooperation.

Prime Minister Holness thanked the bank for its support following Jamaica’s recent hurricane, noting that Afreximbank financing helped restore critical infrastructure including water, electricity, sewage systems and roads, while also assisting reconstruction efforts aimed at building stronger resilience to future disasters.

The meeting also focused on broader development opportunities tied to Jamaica’s membership in the agreement. Discussions included rebuilding and modernising infrastructure such as railways, hospitals and other public facilities, while strengthening regional transportation and trade networks to improve the movement of people and goods across the Caribbean.

Afreximbank has been expanding its presence in the Caribbean as part of its strategy to connect Africa with the region often referred to as “Global Africa.” The bank has already committed billions of dollars in financing and trade support to Caribbean economies in recent years, including funding for infrastructure, trade facilitation and private sector investment.

By joining the agreement, Jamaica gains expanded access to Afreximbank’s financial instruments, technical support and trade networks designed to promote commerce between Africa and CARICOM states.

Regional leaders say the growing partnership could unlock new opportunities in areas such as trade, logistics, tourism, manufacturing and cultural exchange, strengthening economic cooperation between the two regions with deep historical and diaspora ties.

Angle by Deandrea Hamilton. Built with ChatGPT (AI). Magnetic Media — CAPTURING LIFE.

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