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BOJ Anticipates Minimal Price Disruptions from US Tariffs

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Kingston, Jamaica, May 21, 2025 – The Bank of Jamaica (BOJ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) projects that the initial impact of rising US tariffs on prices in Jamaica will be minimal.

“In assessing the near-term outlook, the Monetary Policy Committee contemplated the implications for the Jamaican economy of the policies that have been implemented by the US administration, to date, and in so doing looked at several scenarios. From this exercise, the Bank’s view is that the first-round impact of the increase in US tariffs on prices in Jamaica will not be significant,” BOJ Governor, Richard Byles, said.

He was addressing the Quarterly Monetary Policy Report press conference at the Jamaica Conference Centre in downtown Kingston on Wednesday (May 21).

The Governor noted that, in the US, these policies are likely to cause a temporary rise in inflation.

“We expect that the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) will respond appropriately, and we also anticipate a slowing of the pace of US economic growth. We note that the Fed maintained its interest rate target in the range of 4.25 to 4.50 per cent in the May 2025 meeting and is likely to continue to maintain rates for an extended period of time in 2025,” he said.

Mr. Byles pointed out, however, that while some consumer prices in Jamaica may rise due to higher inflation in the US, the impact of imported inflation on overall domestic price level increases will be largely offset by declining global oil prices.

“Given the available information, the Bank, therefore projects, a moderate impact of the US policy changes on prices in Jamaica. In this context, the outlook is for inflation to remain within the Bank’s target range of four to six per cent over the next two years, notwithstanding some upside risk. This outlook assumes stable inflation expectations, a moderate decline in crude oil prices, continued stability in the exchange rate and moderate domestic demand,” the Governor added.

Mr. Byles pointed out that the risks to the inflation forecast are, however, skewed to the upside, which means the out-turn could be higher than projected.

“Higher inflation could stem from a sharper-than-anticipated increase in the tariff faced by trading partners of the US. In addition, domestic inflation could be higher than projected if there is a further escalation in geopolitical tensions, which could negatively impact international supply chains. Lower inflation could, however, result from lower-than-projected international commodity prices as well as weaker demand conditions,” he explained.                                                                                                                                                                                                               Consequently, the Governor said the MPC will continue to closely monitor domestic inflation expectations and any upward pressure on prices resulting from the evolving tariff landscape.                                                                                                                                                                                                     Mr. Byles added that the Bank is prepared to adjust its monetary policy stance if its outlook does not materialise and inflation deviates upwards from the Bank’s target range.

“Importantly, the Bank is well positioned to support stability in the foreign exchange market, should the effects of the policy changes abroad affect foreign exchange flows by more than currently anticipated,” he stated.

The Governor said the BOJ remains committed to achieving its primary mandate of maintaining inflation at four to six per cent and will deploy the tools necessary to preserve price and foreign exchange market stability.

Meanwhile, Mr. Byles said US policy changes may have some impact on Jamaica’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the external accounts, to the extent that tourism and goods exports as well as remittances are affected.

“Some of Jamaica’s exports will be exempt from the baseline tariff imposed on Jamaica by the US, and this may augur well for growth in those industries. The economy is, therefore, projected to grow moderately over the near term.

“Against this background, and factoring domestic demand conditions, for fiscal year 2025/26, real GDP is projected to recover in the range of one to three per cent, largely reflecting normalisation in the mining, tourism and construction sectors. In this context, employment levels are projected to remain high, even as anecdotal data suggest that wage pressures are moderating,” he said.

Meanwhile, the Governor indicated that Jamaica’s current account balance is expected to remain in surplus in the near term, with international reserves projected to remain healthy.

“The Bank projects that gross reserves will improve further over the medium- term, remaining above the Assessing Reserve Adequacy (ARA) 100 per cent,” he said.

Mr. Byles pointed out that “the external environment carries much uncertainty, but the domestic macroeconomic outlook remains stable in the Bank’s view”.

 

CONTACT: CHRIS PATTERSON

Release: JIS

Caribbean News

Fighting the fungus foe of the beloved banana

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How Venezuelan farmers are learning to grow and live with a devastating plant disease

 

In the fields of Venezuela, where the banana has been for generations a symbol of sustenance and tradition, a shadow fell across the land. In 2023, Venezuela’s National Institute of Integral Agricultural Health (INSAI) declared a phytosanitary emergency: the fungus Fusarium Tropical Race 4 (TR4) (Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense tropical race 4; syn. Fusarium odoratissimum) had arrived in producing areas in the states of Aragua, Carabobo and Cojedes.

This fungus, considered a devastating disease of banana and plantain (Musaceae) trees, can remain in the soil for more than two decades, threatening production and the lives of those who depend on it.

In the state of Aragua in the north of the country, the Renacer community had been growing bananas and plantains on 20 hectares since 2018. Then Fusarium arrived.

“When the disease hit, the entire plantation began to deteriorate. We refused to ‘die’ with the trees because that was our livelihood. The visits of INSAI confirmed that we had to chop down the banana trees. I cried a lot because I had worked with my banana trees for years,” recalls woman farmer, Lesbia Margarita García, with a broken voice.

In response, INSAI implemented measures to eliminate the affected plantations and improve the soil health by changing to other crops that allow agricultural production to recover. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) offered assistance by providing corn seeds, tools, biosecurity inputs and training, with teams of experts helping farmers to start again.

“Planting corn, thanks to the INSAI-FAO programme, gave us a harvest that benefited everyone. We have been improving the soil,” says Lesbia Margarita with a smile. “Now we rotate crops, observe soil health and have learned how to use natural fertilizers. Expert assistance has been key.”

The pilot project works directly with affected producers in high-risk areas, promoting alternative crops such as cereals and vegetables, delivering inputs and tools to mitigate damage and applying biosecurity measures for safe and effective containment.

“Beyond the corn received, we have already planted cassava, chili peppers, beans and pumpkin. We hope that by the end of the year [2025] we will be diversified and that each season we will have something to sell. These lands do not give up,” says Lesbia Margarita with conviction.

The Renacer community is beginning to see fruits. Their products are reaching local markets, generating income and rebuilding their livelihoods.

Key actions to manage Fusarium TR4 are ongoing, including regular monitoring, continuous training, inter‑institutional coordination, updates to the national plan, information campaigns and producer impact assessments. INSAI is sustaining regulatory, surveillance measures and training —with FAO support—as part of a comprehensive long‑term strategy.

At the global level, FAO supports awareness raising, capacity building and international collaboration in the fight against Fusarium TR4 by facilitating the World Banana Forum and its Global Network on TR4.

“The objective is for countries to strengthen their operational and technical capacity, articulating actions between the public sector, the private sector and family farmers,” says Raixa Llauger, FAO Agriculture Officer in Mesoamerica. “FAO and local partners have promoted this approach in Venezuela.”

As an essential part of the activities, a comprehensive training programme was developed with activities that taught farmers how to identify the disease contain it and protect crops. In addition, FAO has distributed laboratory equipment, biosecurity tools and a multispectral drone to INSAI. Drones are an efficient and cost‑effective tool for phytosanitary surveillance, offering rapid, high‑resolution monitoring and early detection of plant pests and diseases.

Overall, the project strengthened biosecurity measures against the Fusarium fungus through the adoption of the National Action Plan and the establishment of partnerships with national and international institutions. In addition, the pilot initiative supporting smallholder farmers in key production areas and a nationwide awareness campaign with broad outreach improved surveillance, diagnosis and phytosanitary response capacities across the country.

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Widow’s Testimony Recounts Night Haiti President Was Killed

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MIAMI, Florida — Emotional testimony from Martine Moïse, the widow of assassinated Haitian President Jovenel Moïse, has given jurors in a U.S. federal courtroom a chilling account of the night gunmen stormed the presidential residence and killed the country’s leader.

Martine Moïse took the stand this week in Miami as part of the ongoing trial of several men accused of helping plan and finance the July 7, 2021 assassination, a crime that plunged Haiti into political crisis and remains only partially solved.

She told the court that armed men forced their way into the president’s private home in the hills above Port-au-Prince during the early morning hours, firing multiple shots at her husband while she lay beside him. She testified that she was also wounded in the attack and survived by pretending to be dead until the gunmen left the room.

According to prosecutors, the plot involved a group of foreign mercenaries, including former Colombian soldiers, along with Haitian and Haitian-American suspects. Investigators say some of the men believed the mission was to detain the president, but the operation turned into an assassination.

The Miami trial is focusing on the alleged role of South Florida businessmen and others accused of organizing or financing the plan, part of a wider international investigation that has stretched across several countries.

More than four years after the killing, the question of who ultimately ordered the assassination remains unanswered, with suspects still in custody in both Haiti and the United States as the case continues to unfold.

Angle by Deandrea Hamilton. Built with ChatGPT (AI). Magnetic Media — CAPTURING LIFE.

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Jamaica Joins Afreximbank Agreement, Strengthening Africa–Caribbean Partnership

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CARIBBEAN — Jamaica has become the 13th CARICOM member state to accede to the African Export-Import Bank Establishment Agreement, further strengthening economic ties between Africa and the Caribbean.

The development was confirmed during the 50th CARICOM Heads of Government Meeting, where an Afreximbank delegation led by George Elombi and Kanayo Awani met with Jamaica’s Prime Minister Andrew Holness to advance cooperation.

Prime Minister Holness thanked the bank for its support following Jamaica’s recent hurricane, noting that Afreximbank financing helped restore critical infrastructure including water, electricity, sewage systems and roads, while also assisting reconstruction efforts aimed at building stronger resilience to future disasters.

The meeting also focused on broader development opportunities tied to Jamaica’s membership in the agreement. Discussions included rebuilding and modernising infrastructure such as railways, hospitals and other public facilities, while strengthening regional transportation and trade networks to improve the movement of people and goods across the Caribbean.

Afreximbank has been expanding its presence in the Caribbean as part of its strategy to connect Africa with the region often referred to as “Global Africa.” The bank has already committed billions of dollars in financing and trade support to Caribbean economies in recent years, including funding for infrastructure, trade facilitation and private sector investment.

By joining the agreement, Jamaica gains expanded access to Afreximbank’s financial instruments, technical support and trade networks designed to promote commerce between Africa and CARICOM states.

Regional leaders say the growing partnership could unlock new opportunities in areas such as trade, logistics, tourism, manufacturing and cultural exchange, strengthening economic cooperation between the two regions with deep historical and diaspora ties.

Angle by Deandrea Hamilton. Built with ChatGPT (AI). Magnetic Media — CAPTURING LIFE.

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