June 27, 2022 – The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada and its dependencies.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of Venezuela, and the ABC Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 8.6 North, longitude 50.9 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Island by late Tuesday, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance will likely become a tropical storm before reaching the southern Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela starting Tuesday night into Wednesday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:
Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.
St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 4 inches.
Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6 inches.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by late Tuesday.
Under Watch at the National Hurricane Center
- Central Tropical Atlantic:A tropical wave located about 700 miles east-southeast of the southern Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form during the next day or so before the system reaches the Windward Islands Tuesday night or possibly while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea Wednesday through Friday.
A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the system and has found winds to tropical storm force. Interests in the Windward Islands and along the northeastern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of these areas later today. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over the Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela Tuesday night and Wednesday.*
Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70 percent.*
Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent.
- Northern Gulf of Mexico:Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pressure. Development of this system is expected to be slow to occur while it moves west-southwestward at about 10 mph toward the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the coasts of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic:A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could become conducive for gradual development later this week while the system moves west- northwestward at around 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.