Washington, D.C. — Federal weather experts are forecasting an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2025, with warm ocean temperatures and low wind shear among the key factors creating conditions ripe for storm formation.

In its seasonal outlook released Wednesday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a 60% chance of an above-average hurricane season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 10% chance of below-normal activity. The season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.

Forecasters anticipate between 13 to 19 named storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes. Up to 3 to 5 are expected to reach major hurricane status—Category 3 or higher—with winds of at least 111 mph. NOAA says it has 70% confidence in these projections.

“This year’s outlook should serve as a call to action,” said Ken Graham, Director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “We urge everyone to prepare now—before a storm is on the horizon.”

Favorable Climate Conditions for a Busy Season

Several climate patterns are converging to create a more active-than-usual season. Chief among them: warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, which provide energy to fuel storm systems. Additionally, weaker upper-level winds and a potentially enhanced West African monsoon are expected to support more frequent and intense tropical waves—often the precursors to Atlantic hurricanes.

“This is the type of environment that allows storms to develop and intensify more easily,” explained Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “We saw last year how hurricanes can cause destruction far inland, not just along the coast. Our mission is to help communities prepare and stay safe.”

Grimm noted that hurricanes Helene and Debby in 2024 brought significant inland flooding, underscoring the wide-ranging impact these storms can have.

Technology and Forecasting Upgrades for 2025

This hurricane season also marks the introduction of several upgrades to NOAA’s forecasting tools:

• The Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System is being enhanced to improve storm track and intensity predictions by another 5%, improving the accuracy of early warnings.
• For the first time, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Central Pacific Hurricane Center will be able to issue advisory products up to 72 hours in advance of expected storm surge or tropical-storm-force winds—giving communities more time to prepare.
• The Global Tropical Hazards Outlook, which forecasts tropical cyclone risks, now extends its range from two to three weeks ahead, giving emergency planners more lead time.

Stronger Public Communication and Spanish-Language Services

In an effort to reach more communities, the NHC will expand its Spanish-language products for the 2025 season. These include advisories, updates, discussions, and key messages designed to keep Spanish-speaking populations better informed.

Also returning this year is the experimental version of the forecast cone graphic, which now highlights inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, and identifies areas where hurricane watches and tropical storm warnings are active simultaneously.

In coastal areas, a new rip current risk map will be available when an active tropical system is present, based on data from local weather offices.

New Radar Tech and Flood Forecasting Tools

For the 2025 season, NOAA is introducing ROARS, an experimental electronically scanning radar system aboard its P-3 hurricane hunter aircraft. The technology will allow scientists to gather new data on wind patterns and ocean wave behavior underneath developing storms.

Meanwhile, the Weather Prediction Center’s Probabilistic Precipitation Portal, a user-friendly forecasting tool for rainfall and flooding, will offer three-day outlooks—a critical resource after Hurricane Helene dropped over 30 inches of rain in parts of North Carolina last year.

Be Ready, Not Caught Off Guard

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that NOAA’s investments in research and forecasting models are improving preparedness nationwide. “With these tools, we’ve never been more equipped to face a hurricane season,” he said.

While NOAA’s forecast speaks to overall activity and not where or when storms may strike, the agency urges all residents in hurricane-prone areas to review emergency plans, gather supplies, and stay alert throughout the season.

An updated outlook will be issued in early August, ahead of the historical peak of Atlantic hurricane activity.

USA, May 23, 2025 – April 2025 delivered a dangerous mix of extreme weather across the United States, with deadly tornadoes, record warmth in the Southeast, and worsening drought in parts of the West and Hawaii, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

A slow-moving storm system early in the month triggered over 150 tornadoes across the South and Midwest, resulting in widespread flooding, dozens of injuries, and at least 24 fatalities. Meanwhile, large portions of the West, South, and East experienced dry and unseasonably warm conditions, contributing to wildfire risk and expanding drought.

The average temperature across the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) in April was 53.6°F—2.6°F above the historical average—ranking among the warmest on record. The Southeast saw particularly intense heat: North Carolina and Virginia logged their second-warmest April, while Georgia and South Carolina had their third- and fourth-warmest, respectively.

Puerto Rico experienced heavy late-April rainfall, leading to flash floods and landslides. Alaska recorded its second-wettest April on record and its fourth-warmest year-to-date, while Hawaii experienced below-average rainfall and rising drought concerns.

Nationwide precipitation averaged 2.82 inches, slightly above normal, with wetter-than-average conditions from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. Kentucky recorded its second-highest April rainfall on record, with Oklahoma and Missouri also seeing near-record totals. However, January–April precipitation overall remained below average.

By the end of April, about 37% of the contiguous U.S. was in drought—down from earlier in the month—but conditions worsened across the Southwest, northern High Plains, Florida, and Hawaii. NOAA forecasts suggest continued warmth into May, with elevated wildfire risks in the Southwest, upper Mississippi Valley, and coastal Mid-Atlantic.

NOAA’s full April 2025 Climate Report is available online, along with updates on drought and fire conditions.

May 15, 2025 – NOAA will issue its outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season during a news conference on Thursday, May 22, at the Jefferson Parish Emergency Operations Center in Gretna, Louisiana, and virtually.

Speakers will announce the anticipated activity for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, factors that may influence hurricane development and provide advice for how the public can prepare for the season, which officially begins June 1 and ends November 30.

WHAT

News conference announcing NOAA’s 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

WHEN

Thursday, May 22; 10:00 a.m. CDT / 11:00 a.m. EDT

WHERE

Jefferson Parish Emergency Operations Center, 910 3rd Street, Gretna, LA 70053

WHO

• Laura Grimm, acting NOAA administrator
• Ken Graham, director, NOAA’s National Weather Service
• Cynthia Lee-Sheng, Jefferson Parish president

Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction will also be available for questions and interviews.

FOR IN-PERSON REGISTRATION

Media interested in attending the in-person news conference must register hereoffsite link by 4:00 p.m. EDT on May 20. Space is limited. For any questions, email nws.pa@noaa.gov.

FOR VIRTUAL REGISTRATION

Credentialed reporters unable to attend in person may watch a live stream of the news conference and must register at this link.offsite link (For the best experience, download the Adobe Connect appoffsite link.) Reporters attending virtually will have the ability to submit written questions during the Q&A portion of the event.

Additional resources

Hurricane safety and preparedness is critically important before the season begins on June 1. NOAA’s National Weather Service provides resources to prepare for hurricane hazards and real-time updates about active tropical weather systems from the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.