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In The Hands of Politicians: Scotiabank Economics Global Outlook

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#Toronto, ON – April 13, 2019 – CanadaIGlobal growth is slowing as the economy works through a soft patch. Early signs suggest the worst of the slowdown might be behind us. The expansion is in a delicate situation. Investors are nervous and maintaining confidence is key to a continued expansion. The global economy is particularly vulnerable to policy missteps, notably President Trump’s continued threats to disrupt US trade flows.

“While we continue to think the soft patch we are going through will be temporary, the global economy remains in a delicate position,” said Jean-François Perrault, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Scotiabank. “At this point in the cycle, confidence is key to sustaining the expansion, and Trump’s misguided efforts to make America great risk achieving the opposite.”

Highlights of Scotiabank’s Global Outlook include:

·       Canada: Above-potential growth to resume in Q2 as the factors contributing to the soft patch in Q4 2018 and Q1 2019 are reversing.Growth is expected to slow modestly to 1.6% during 2019 before rising to 2.1% in 2020.

·       United States: A gradual US GDP growth slowdown (2.9%/2.4%/1.9% in 2018/19/20) is expected on the back of the waning boost from fiscal stimulus.

·       United Kingdom: While we expect that the UK and the EU will avoid a hard Brexit, we forecast that economic growth in Britain will remain sluggish in the near-term amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty and as the economy adjusts to a post-Brexit world.

·       Eurozone: Real GDP growth will slow in 2019 owing to global trade and geopolitical uncertainty as well as certain transitory factors impacting the European industrial sector. Domestic demand in the euro bloc should, however, remain resilient despite external headwinds.

·       Mexico: heightened uncertainty is leading to slower growth, with GDP expected to rise by 1.4% in 2019.

·       China: A gradual deceleration is underway, but recent policy measures to raise demand are starting to bear fruit.

·       Commodities: Healthy global  economic  growth  provides  a  solid  demand  backdrop  for commodities  through  2020,  allowing  fundamentals  to  reassert commodity-specific  price  paths  over  the  coming  years

Read Scotiabank’s Global Outlook online here.

Scotiabank provides clients with in-depth research into the factors shaping the outlook for Canada and the global economy, including macroeconomic developments, currency and capital market trends, commodity and industry performance, as well as monetary, fiscal and public policy issues. Follow this research on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics.

Press Release: Scotiabank

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Health

Woman dies on Tuesday; 32nd Covid Death for Turks & Caicos

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By Dana Malcolm

Staff Writer

 

#TurksandCaicos, January 20, 2022 – The Turks and Caicos has recorded its 32nd death related to COVID-19.

A Ministry of Health press release informed that the individual who was in quarantine in Grand Turk and requested emergency aid on Tuesday; response came from the public health team in Grand Turk.

The person, who we are told is a special needs young woman – was unvaccinated and had underlying medical conditions.

The death rate in the Turks and Caicos of both vaccinated and unvaccinated persons has climbed alarmingly this year.  In the 21-month period from March 2020 when the country recorded its first case to December 2021, there were 26 deaths recorded in the TCI.

In the 19 days since the start of 2022 that number has increased to 32; which means six deaths already in January.

 

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Bahamas News

Cruising should slow down says PAHO

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By Dana Malcolm

Staff Writer

 

‘Slow down on Cruising’, that’s the word from the Pan American Health Organization, PAHO in their latest recent press conference.

Dr. Ciro Ugarte Director of Health Emergencies at the PAHO was referring to the Bahamas but made sure to note that the advice was highly relevant to many countries in the times of omicron.

“In the context of intense transmission, due to the Omicron variant as we have highlighted several times. It is just logical to suspend or at least limit the cruise ship traffic as an outbreak on board might end up exceedingly high and probably will go beyond the capacity of local health services”

Both the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos are experiencing a massive uptick in cases and several warnings regarding cruise travel have been issued by the US Centers for Disease Control.

Cruising just resumed for many regional countries this past Summer, Turks and Caicos was among the latest to restart on December 13.

A stop to sailing would be devastating to economies, however, ports of call like Grand Turk which are reeling with rocketing case numbers of COVID are urged to consider the suggestion of slowing down on ships by PAHO.

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Caribbean News

Cayman gets its second ‘Sir’; former Premier Alden McLaughlin knighted on Jan 1

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By Dana Malcolm

Staff Writer

 

#Cayman, January 20, 2022 – Former Premier of Cayman Alden McLaughlin was knighted at the start of 2022; named in the Queen’s New Year Honors List. He is only the second Caymanian to have ever received a knighthood from her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II.

Sir Vassel Johnson, received the honour in 1994; he was Cayman’s first Financial Secretary; he died in November 2008 at the age of 86.

Current Governor, Martyn Roper extended congratulations saying, “This is an outstanding personal achievement for former Premier McLaughlin, one of the most important and impactful political leaders in Cayman over the last 21 years. It is a significant moment for our islands. This historic award is only the second ever Knighthood to a Caymanian since the first in the 1990s. It is a strong signal of the respect in which Cayman is held and a visible demonstration of the progress Cayman has made as a vibrant democracy with strong good governance foundations.”

Sir McLaughlin, who is also now a QC attorney, served two terms as premier and had a career in politics that spanned 21 years. McLaughlin is known for his role in modernizing Cayman’s constitution.

Current premier G. Wayne Panton described the occasion as a unifying moment for the country saying, This is a day of celebration and great pride for all Caymanians as a son of our soil has been bestowed one of the highest honour.  Today marks a new and most unique storyline in the history of the Cayman Islands.  In considering the rarity and magnitude of this occasion, this is certainly a unifying moment for our community.”

Sir Alden McLaughlin, 60, was appointed as a Knight Commander of the Most Distinguished Order of Saint Michael and Saint George on January 1, 2022.

 

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