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In The Hands of Politicians: Scotiabank Economics Global Outlook

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#Toronto, ON – April 13, 2019 – CanadaIGlobal growth is slowing as the economy works through a soft patch. Early signs suggest the worst of the slowdown might be behind us. The expansion is in a delicate situation. Investors are nervous and maintaining confidence is key to a continued expansion. The global economy is particularly vulnerable to policy missteps, notably President Trump’s continued threats to disrupt US trade flows.

“While we continue to think the soft patch we are going through will be temporary, the global economy remains in a delicate position,” said Jean-François Perrault, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Scotiabank. “At this point in the cycle, confidence is key to sustaining the expansion, and Trump’s misguided efforts to make America great risk achieving the opposite.”

Highlights of Scotiabank’s Global Outlook include:

·       Canada: Above-potential growth to resume in Q2 as the factors contributing to the soft patch in Q4 2018 and Q1 2019 are reversing.Growth is expected to slow modestly to 1.6% during 2019 before rising to 2.1% in 2020.

·       United States: A gradual US GDP growth slowdown (2.9%/2.4%/1.9% in 2018/19/20) is expected on the back of the waning boost from fiscal stimulus.

·       United Kingdom: While we expect that the UK and the EU will avoid a hard Brexit, we forecast that economic growth in Britain will remain sluggish in the near-term amid lingering geopolitical uncertainty and as the economy adjusts to a post-Brexit world.

·       Eurozone: Real GDP growth will slow in 2019 owing to global trade and geopolitical uncertainty as well as certain transitory factors impacting the European industrial sector. Domestic demand in the euro bloc should, however, remain resilient despite external headwinds.

·       Mexico: heightened uncertainty is leading to slower growth, with GDP expected to rise by 1.4% in 2019.

·       China: A gradual deceleration is underway, but recent policy measures to raise demand are starting to bear fruit.

·       Commodities: Healthy global  economic  growth  provides  a  solid  demand  backdrop  for commodities  through  2020,  allowing  fundamentals  to  reassert commodity-specific  price  paths  over  the  coming  years

Read Scotiabank’s Global Outlook online here.

Scotiabank provides clients with in-depth research into the factors shaping the outlook for Canada and the global economy, including macroeconomic developments, currency and capital market trends, commodity and industry performance, as well as monetary, fiscal and public policy issues. Follow this research on Twitter at @ScotiaEconomics.

Press Release: Scotiabank

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Caribbean News

Team Trinidad & Tobago Makes Waves with Historic CARIFTA Aquatics Performance

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April 14, 2026 – Team Trinidad and Tobago delivered one of the most commanding performances at the 2026 CARIFTA Aquatics Championships, finishing third overall in swimming and second in athletics, signaling a powerful resurgence on the regional stage.

Competing in Martinique, the swim team amassed an impressive 747 points and 59 medals—20 gold, 19 silver and 20 bronze—in what officials are calling a historic showing. The result marks a significant step forward from previous years, reinforcing the country’s growing strength across disciplines and age groups.

Standout performances came from a deep and talented squad. Zahara Anthony led the charge with 72 points, dominating the Girls 11–12 division across freestyle, butterfly and individual medley events. Liam Carrington followed closely with 69 points, delivering a near-flawless campaign in the Boys 15–17 category, while Marena Martinez, Xaiden Valentine and Serenity Pantin added critical points with consistent podium finishes.

The team’s strength was not limited to individual brilliance. Athletes like Micah Alexander, Ethan McMillan-Cole and Jaden Mills showcased versatility and depth, while relay contributions from swimmers including Julius Ennals and Anpherne Bernard helped secure the team’s overall standing.

The performance drew high praise from the Ministry of Sport and Youth Affairs in Trinidad and Tobago, which welcomed the team home in celebration of what was described as a defining moment for the programme.

Minister Phillip Watts noted, “This success is not accidental. It is the result of hard work, structure, vision, and belief. Our young athletes are proving that Trinidad and Tobago is rising again.”

He added that every performance sent a clear message across the region that the country is “not standing still… we are moving forward.”

The showing in Martinique underscores the impact of sustained investment in youth development, coaching and systems, with Team TTO emerging as one of the most complete and competitive squads at CARIFTA 2026.

With momentum now firmly on their side, Trinidad and Tobago’s swimmers are not just competing—they are setting the pace for the future of Caribbean aquatics.

Developed by Deandrea Hamilton • with ChatGPT (AI) • edited by Magnetic Media.

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Bahamas News

New Manifestos Released as Bahamas Heads to Historic May 12 Vote

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The Bahamas, April 14, 2026 – With the 2026 Bahamian general election set for May 12, the country’s major political parties have now formally placed their plans before the electorate, offering competing visions for governance, growth and relief.

The governing Progressive Liberal Party (PLP), led by Philip Davis, launched its “Blueprint for Progress 2026” on April 8, 2026, outlining a 46-page plan focused on long-term development and systems reform. The document places heavy emphasis on energy transition, digital government, workforce training and food security, positioning the party as one seeking continuity following its first term. The full plan is publicly available online through official PLP platforms for voters to review.

Just days later, on Sunday, April 12, the opposition Free National Movement (FNM), under Michael Pintard, unveiled its 2026 Manifesto at a major event in Nassau. Spanning 54 pages, the document centers on cost-of-living relief, tax reform, healthcare expansion and housing, offering what the party describes as a more immediate response to economic pressures facing Bahamian families. The FNM has also made its manifesto accessible online.

Beyond the two major parties, the Coalition of Independents (COI) had already entered the policy space earlier, formally unveiling its long-range Vision 2030 framework on Saturday, March 1, 2025, at the Fusion Superplex in Nassau during a packed national launch led by party leader Lincoln Bain. That framework has since been complemented by a 100-day action plan released in late March/early April 2026, adding a short-term policy layer to its long-range proposals.

These policy rollouts come as the country prepares for a pivotal vote, with the Parliamentary Registration Department confirming a voters’ register of approximately 203,000 eligible voters, one of the largest in the nation’s history. Key dates are now set, with Nomination Day on April 16, followed by advance polls on April 30, ahead of General Election Day on May 12.

With platforms now in the public domain and the timeline locked in, the focus shifts squarely to the electorate—who must now weigh the promises, examine the plans and decide the country’s direction at the polls.

Angle by Deandrea Hamilton. Built with ChatGPT (AI). Magnetic Media — CAPTURING LIFE.

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Bahamas News

From Concept to Approval: What a 2019 Water Security Plan Now Means for Bahamians

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The Bahamas, April 14, 2026 – At its core, the $65 million water security project is designed to strengthen the reliability, safety and resilience of the water supply across The Bahamas.

If implemented as planned, the investment is expected to improve water quality, reduce contamination risks and support public health, while increasing supply reliability and limiting service disruptions during droughts or system failures. The project also aims to expand and upgrade infrastructure, including wellfields, pumping stations and storage capacity, and to protect freshwater resources from saltwater intrusion—an increasing threat for low-lying islands. In practical terms, that could mean cleaner, more consistent and more dependable access to water for residents across the country.

The project was first conceptualised in 2019 under the previous administration, when a proposal was submitted to the Green Climate Fund to strengthen the resilience of the country’s water systems. That early work came just months before Hurricane Dorian exposed the vulnerability of national infrastructure, including critical water and sanitation systems, particularly in the northern Bahamas.

The initial phase focused on developing the concept, identifying priority areas and engaging regional and international partners, including the Caribbean Development Bank, to support the design and preparation of a full funding proposal.

Following the change in government in 2021, the project advanced into its most technical and demanding stages. The current administration oversaw the completion of key requirements, including feasibility studies, environmental and social assessments, and detailed financing negotiations with international partners—steps necessary to move the proposal from concept to approval.

That multi-year process has now culminated in approval of a $65 million financing package, combining grant funding with concessional loans to support long-term upgrades to the country’s water infrastructure.

While the project brings significant international support, it is not entirely free money. The package is structured as a blended financing arrangement, combining grant funding with concessional loans—meaning a portion of the funding will ultimately need to be repaid. Based on information released by the Caribbean Development Bank, approximately $25 million of the total package is tied to loan financing, with the remaining portion provided as grant support.

Concessional loans typically carry more favourable terms than commercial borrowing, including lower interest rates and longer repayment periods. However, they still represent debt obligations that will be borne over time.

Notably, detailed terms of the loan components—including interest rates, repayment schedules and any associated conditions—were not disclosed in the initial announcement issued by the Office of the Prime Minister (Bahamas). Those details are expected to be outlined in formal financing agreements, but have not yet been made public.

For Bahamians, the project represents both investment and obligation. While the grant funding provides a significant boost to infrastructure development, the loan component adds to the country’s long-term financial commitments—making transparency around terms and implementation timelines especially important.

While the approval marks a significant milestone, the timeline for delivery remains a critical factor. Based on information available from project partners, implementation is not expected to begin immediately. The initiative is anticipated to move into its execution phase later in 2026, following finalisation of financing agreements and completion of preparatory requirements.

From there, the project is projected to unfold over several years, with estimates suggesting a multi-year implementation period of up to seven years to fully deliver the planned upgrades to water infrastructure across The Bahamas.

This means that while the funding has now been approved, the benefits will be realised gradually rather than all at once. A definitive completion date has not been publicly outlined, and detailed timelines tied to specific islands or phases of work have yet to be disclosed.

For Bahamians, the question now shifts from approval to execution—when funds are drawn down, when construction begins, and how consistently the project moves from plan to delivery.

Angle by Deandrea Hamilton. Built with ChatGPT (AI). Magnetic Media — CAPTURING LIFE.

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