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TCI Governor on the Science of COVID-19; Statement made April 1

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#TurksandCaicosIslands – FULL STATEMENT :

Good evening Turks and Caicos, it’s the Governor speaking, speaking on behalf of both myself and also the Premier. The Premier will talk on Friday about the support and stimulus package.

From me a Wednesday evening update for you. This is our fifth day of lockdown and curfew.  So far so good – and the first thing to say is thank you. We are collectively doing the right thing.  It’s causing, we know, inconvenience and in some cases serious hardship.  Most people I speak to understand instinctively why we are doing this but we thought we would use tonight to try and describe the underpinning facts of why we are doing what we are doing.

The Science:

If you can bear it, a quick science lesson – because it’s the science that is guiding us on this. You’ll have heard lots of people describe ‘flattening the curve’.  As far as I can, I want to describe to you what that means and why what we are doing does this.

All virus’s spread at different rates.  There is a scientific scale of measuring infection – this isn’t random – so, for example, measles is ‘nine’ which means that we would expect one measles case to infect nine others.  For Influenza the infection rate is 1.3.  If the rate is ‘one’ then one person infects one other person.  A figure less than ‘one’ means the disease is in decline and may die out.   

COVID19 is thought to be around 2.2. Much less infectious than measles but considerably more infectious than influenza. What this means is that, on average, one infected person passes it on to 2.2 other people. As with all statistics that quote averages this means that there may be many people that only pass it on to one, and one person that passes it on to many, but as I say the global average is 2.2

You see this in the way COVID19 spreads. One person infects two, two people infect four, those four infect eight (in fact because it’s an infection rate of 2.2 it’s now starting to become more than simply doubling) so let’s say that eight cases becomes 17 and then 17 becomes 37. You get the picture, we now have a very dramatic rise as we saw in Italy and in cities such as New York.  It’s out of the cage and it’s spreading and multiplying at a factor of 2.2. Not good.

The number one purpose of everything you are doing is to change the maths on this spread. What we need to do is bring this down from 2.2 to certainly under 1.5, in truth we want to get it to under one.  But Below 1.5 we can start to impose ourselves on this virus and bring it under control. We have to do that because our medical services can manage a much flattened curve but they couldn’t possibly manage the sort of increase I described as it grew at 2.2

The good news is that all the medical opinion we can draw on – here in the Island, public and private, and that expertise we can draw on elsewhere, including some very eminent epidemiologists in the UK, tell us that TCI is doing all the right things to achieve this. We got ahead of it and we clamped down on it, and if we can hold the line we are going to not only get through but present an example to the world about how to do this.

Separate to this there is a secondary benefit. The better the lockdown we achieve, the more chance there will be that we generate in the population a slow-burn immunity that builds over time. These will be people who have in some way been exposed to the virus but have either had no symptoms or very mild symptoms. 

It’s reasonable I think for us to assume, given how large our tourist sector was, that the virus must have been on the Islands before it was first properly identified. Some immunity will have been starting to develop.  

With testing – coming in from the UK and also being procured from the US – there’s sophisticated modelling that can explain this and as we reach a tipping point we will know that. While there will continue to be cases in TCI, there will be sufficient immunity in the population to prevent its rapid spread here. We will be seeking data to make smart decisions around this.

With the Territory having developed its own immunity – with the borders still closed – we can start to restart the local economy and get money moving through and round it. Businesses will be able to open. Fear of each other will subside.

Indeed, these Islands are small enough, the measures we have all taken together restrictive enough, and the data we may be able to collect around immunity important enough, that it may well be that TCI becomes an example of how to do this – that does our brand – as an extraordinary place and a healthy place to visit – no end of good.

It also allows us to start to see a medium term future where a tourist visiting TCI who we know is safe can come to an extraordinary destination that they know is not only beautiful, but is safe. But let’s be honest with each other that’s some way off in the future although something we are working towards.

Adjustment to the Regulations

Laws can help moderate and guide behaviour but it’s by far best when a people know why they are doing something than be told to do something. Self-denial, self-discipline and good judgement are so much more powerful than say the threat of vehicle confiscation. Please, err on the side of caution. Because you can do something doesn’t mean you necessarily should do something. 

We said we’d keep everything we were doing under review and we have been. Broadly we think we are in the right place.  Matters that have now become clearly the way to do things – which haven’t caused enormous inconvenience but have severely cut down traffic and movement – we yesterday captured in law; so, for example, you may not drive to your place of exercise.

We have removed takeaways, drive-throughs and restaurants from being described as an essential service. From the last few days it’s clear they aren’t – we can get by until the end of this period without them, wonderful as they are.

We do it based on medical and Policing advice.  With TCI Islanders and Residents being the sociable society we are, some risk becoming the equivalent of the local bar, the spot some meet and engage, and it also gives a license for movement we could not reasonably police.

This covers every form of takeaway, no exceptions.  There is the possibility of the Governor granting exceptions but I think that will be unlikely over this period of lockdown unless it’s in direct support of an effort to alleviate hunger.

It’s also now clear in the law that you have to be on a route from your home to your allowed destination (a supermarket is the best example). Much of this ‘law’ wasn’t required because people were demonstrating great common sense but it is a tidying up exercise for those who might take advantage, a week or so in.  Beyond that we’ve kept matters very much as they are. It’s working.

We had an interesting piece of false news start to generate today. It wasn’t malicious just wrong and it originated from a South African website – that isn’t a recognised authority on medical statistics. 

To be clear, we still have only 5 (five) confirmed cases in TCI.  The authoritative way to know – what our health professionals on the front line know – is the TCI dashboard that we disseminate daily and is on the MOH website. Please stick to TCI sources, we hold the data because we collect the data. We want the public to know.

This wasn’t malicious or dangerous it was just wrong. There have though been several instances on social media recently that haven’t just been wrong they’ve been dangerous. Before focussing on the tiny number who are malicious amongst us, let me say somethuing about the vast majority.

This is not the time to stifle decent debate – indeed the future of these Islands are starting to be decided during this time in terms of whether we remain safe, recover, and can once again prosper. 

But what this short period is not, is an opportunity for us to stigmatise anyone who has COVID19. For all you know you may be one of the fortunate that had it, suffered few if any symptoms, but passed it on to others. Or – if we all lose control of this through our casualness – it’s very probably true that it will be someone very close to you, who you love, that ends up with this virus. It doesn’t discriminate.

If you see someone originating or spreading hate or misinformation, designed to cause fear, then there is now a Police Unit – well skilled in following leads across the internet – that you can report to. Their email is: pofscovid19@tcipolice.tc. That’s pofscovid19@tcipolice.tc

Stopping the Sloops

I’ll finish on one point I flagged yesterday on Social Media. A large sloop of many hundreds was turned around yesterday on the High Seas between here and Haiti. I was on a call today with the US Ambassador and US Coast Guard in Bahamas; the number of combined assets we have operating presently in this space has significantly increased.  That frustrating battle continues every night – we should be more proud of those involved in this work tonight, than ever. But for those who can connect to Haiti do send them the message. You have our continued attention and you will be stopped.

As of tonight we are okay. We are in a much better position than many others. In terms of health, we can see a route through this, not through hope but through understanding the science, determined to capitalise by doing this once and doing this right. That’s what you are doing TCI; you are a resilient lot and resilience is the order of the day for the next few weeks. The reward is there if we stay firm; as firm we must.

Day five is drawing to a close and day six is soon to begin – soon we will be announcing the end of the first week. We can do this.

Good night TCI

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Caribbean News

Police De-Briefing with TCI Governor Daniel-Selvaratnam

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#TurksandCaicos#Anti-Crime, February 23rd, 2024 – De-briefing Acting Commissioner of Police Christopher Eyre held a meeting with Her Excellency the Governor Dileeni Daniel-Selvaratnam and Member of Parliament for Grand Turk North, the Hon. Otis Morris, today (February 21st ) at Police Headquarters, Airport Road, Providenciales.

The debriefing was to discuss concerns raised by residents during last evening’s Anti-Crime Town Hall meeting at the H.J Robinson High School, Grand Turk. Commissioner Eyre expressed his deep appreciation to Her Excellency and Hon Morris for their attendance, saying that work was already underway to address the community concerns.

Commissioner Eyre said: “I acknowledge the challenges raised and wish to assure you that the Executive of the RTCIPF remains steadfast in ensuring the TCI is safe. We listened to your concerns, and I assure you that rebuilding trust and strengthening community-policing relations are top priorities.“

The RTCIPF has taken a holistic approach in the fight against crime. Increased visibility, greater stakeholder collaborations and ongoing dialogue forums to appraise you will occur. We are accountable to you.”

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Caribbean News

Too much secrecy with Airport Tax increase says former Deputy Premier Sean Astwood

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Dana Malcolm
Staff Writer 

#TurksandCaicos#Tax, February 23rd, 2024 – “The TCIAA should not be allowed to announce and implement new or increased taxes or fees in this already difficult financial climate without more details,” says Sean Astwood, Former Deputy Premier regarding the increase in the  Airport Development Fee from $20 to $35 describing the increase as not proactive but premature.

Astwood said there were a number of questions that he believed every Turks and Caicos Islander should ask and have the right to know the answers to including ‘Why now?’

The Opposition PDM member pointed out that only one airport has international flights and it would soon undergo a change in structure, paired with the ‘unexplainable’ delay in the completion of the airport in South Caicos and the possibility of ongoing negotiations in relation to the one in North Caicos, he queried: ‘Why not wait to see what amount or step may be needed in facilitating services in these Airports before a hike in fees?’

“In this climate, taxpayers must have more information and the benefit of a complete picture from not just the TCIAA Chiefs but from the Premier himself. The people must know what the current earnings of the TCIAA is; how has the management of the Airports increased to warrant such a large increase; how much does it cost to operate all of these airports; what is the estimated increase in revenue and how will these monies be used,” the former DP said.

He also questioned the avalanche of resignations that had recently affected the TCIAA

“I have serious concerns with the Premier’s oversight of this matter knowing that the TCIAA is no doubt experiencing a major problem with the vast number of Turks and Caicos Islanders resigning from their positions including high level positions. This alone requires a more in-depth investigation.”

Astwood also demanded information about the ongoing canopy project at the Providenciales/Howard Hamilton International which should have been completed in less than six months but was running on two years.

“TCIAA has quickly developed a reputation for big spending recently and stalled projects. We need answers as taxpayers. Why now? How much do you intend to raise? How will it be used? The people deserve a response. In a “proactive” step, this information must be provided to the public before this increase is implemented,” he ended.

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Caribbean News

Justice system instructed to improve coordination 

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Dana Malcolm
Staff Writer 

#TurksandCaicos#Violence, February 23rd, 2024 – Violence exploded in the Turks and Caicos between January 26 and February 2nd, and with signs pointing to the involvement of recently released convicts the National Security Council is on a mission to reduce the risk of flare ups when offenders rejoin society.

The Police Force, Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions, and other criminal Justice partners have now been instructed to review how they coordinate with each other and complete their specific roles to support case progression. Assessments about public safety in respect to offenders during bail hearings are also to be given keen attention.

The NSC is also planning to engage with the Judiciary as part of this review to help with delivering verdicts in a timely manner,

Called after the January 26 killing in Grand Turk which allegedly involved a former inmate, the meeting gathered law enforcement and other partners so that the NSC could get a sense of how effectively they were working with each other to ‘secure criminal justice outcomes.’

“The NSC— sought briefings on the effectiveness of liaison between the RTCIPF, the office of the DPP and wider criminal justice agencies in respect of case progression, including the assessments made to public safety that inform representations at bail hearings,” a statement revealed.

The information detailing the January 30th NSC meeting was released on February 2nd.

With senior leadership from the Royal Turks and Caicos Islands Police Force (RTCIPF), the TCI Regiment, TCI Border Force, HMP and the Office of the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP) in the room, the NSC looked into two incidents involving recently released inmates.

Two days after the meeting the NSC chairs had to be briefed again about another incident involving a former inmate where two men were left dead on February 1.

The Council headed jointly by Washington Misick, TCI Premier and Dileeni Daniel Selvaratnam, TCI Governor says the risk reduction strategies discussed in the meeting NSC will seek to address HMP exit arrangements and risks to public safety.

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