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Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory

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#Miami,FL, September 28, 2018 – USA – This is a Tropical Storm Advisory from the  National Hurricane Center in Miami FL

 

…KIRK MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BUT ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS STILL SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION

———————————————-

LOCATION…13.2N 62.5W

ABOUT 110 MI…175 KM WSW OF ST. LUCIA

ABOUT 145 MI…230 KM SW OF MARTINIQUE

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1005 MB…29.68 INCHES

 

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

——————–

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:  None.

 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

* Barbados

* St. Lucia

* Dominica

* Martinique

* Guadeloupe

 

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

 

These watches and warnings will likely be gradually discontinued later today.  Interest elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor the progress of Kirk. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

 

 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

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At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 62.5 West. Kirk is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. On the forecast track, Kirk’s center, or its remnants, will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the next 2 or 3 days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.  Kirk is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression later today or Saturday, and then degenerate into a trough of low pressure.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km to the north and east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

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WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are still occurring over portions of the warning area and should continue to spread across the remainder of the warning area today.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area during the next several hours.  Locally higher winds are likely atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains.

 

RAINFALL:  Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica.  These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.  Across Saint Croix and eastern Puerto Rico, Kirk is expected to bring 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches today and Saturday.

 

 

NEXT ADVISORY

Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

Forecaster Avila

 

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Caribbean News

Seven Days. Seven Nations. One Storm — Hurricane Melissa

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A week of wind, water, and heartbreak

 

From Haiti’s hillsides to Bermuda’s reefs, seven Caribbean nations have been battered, bruised, and forever marked by Hurricane Melissa — a storm that tested not only the region’s infrastructure but its unshakable spirit of unity.

Saturday–Sunday, October 25–26 – The First Strike: Hispaniola

Before the storm even earned its name, torrential rain and flash floods swept across Haiti and the Dominican Republic, claiming lives and tearing through rural communities.

In southern Haiti, rivers burst their banks, swallowing roads and homes; 23 people were confirmed dead by Sunday evening. Across the border, one death was reported in the Dominican Republic as swollen rivers cut off villages in Barahona and Pedernales.

By nightfall, the tropical system had strengthened — and the Caribbean knew it was facing something historic.

Monday, October 27 – Evacuations and Airlifts

In The Bahamas, Prime Minister Philip Davis issued a mandatory evacuation for the MICAL Islands — Mayaguana, Inagua, Crooked Island, Acklins, Long Cay, and Ragged Island.

Bahamasair added extra flights as the nation braced for what forecasters warned could become the strongest storm in nearly two decades.

Meanwhile, Jamaica, Turks & Caicos, and Cuba activated their national emergency operations centers.

Tuesday, October 28 – Jamaica and Haiti Hit Hard

By afternoon, Hurricane Melissa made landfall near St Elizabeth, Jamaica, as a Category 5 hurricane — winds of 185 mph, central pressure 892 mb, the lowest ever recorded so close to the island.

Roads collapsed, bridges washed away, and Black River Hospital lost its roof. Power failed for 72 percent of the island.

BOJ TV footage shows split asphalt, sparking lines, and flooded communities abandoned for safety.

Initially four were reported dead, that grew to seven deaths and heavy damage in 170 communities; Andrew Holness, Jamaican Prime Minister calling it “a national test of resilience.”

Haiti, still recovering from the weekend’s flooding, was hit again as outer bands dumped more rain on Les Cayes and Jacmel, deepening the humanitarian crisis.

Wednesday, October 29 – Crossing to Cuba

Weakened slightly to Category 4 (145 mph), Melissa tracked north-northeast at 8 mph, hammering eastern Cuba with hurricane-force winds

and mudslides. Over 15 000 people were evacuated from Santiago de Cuba and Holguín.

In Turks & Caicos, the Regiment deployed to Grand Turk, Salt Cay, South, North and Middle Caicos, preparing shelters and securing public buildings.

Thursday, October 30 – The Bahamas and the All Clear

Melissa’s speed increased, sparing the northern Caribbean its worst.

The Bahamas Airport Authority closed 13 airports from Mayaguana to Exuma International; none reported casualties, though infrastructure suffered.

In Turks & Caicos, the all-clear came early Thursday after minimal impact.  Premier Washington Misick expressed gratitude and pledged support for neighbors:

“We must act — not only with words, but with compassion and deeds.”

Friday, October 31 – Counting the Cost

By Friday, Melissa had weakened to Category 3 (120 mph) north of Cuba.

The Bahamas Department of Meteorology issued its final alert, lifting warnings for the southern islands.

Regional toll:

  • Haiti: 23 dead, thousands displaced.
  • Jamaica: 7 dead, 170 communities damaged; 72% without electricity
  • Cuba: 2 dead, 15, 000 evacuated.
  • Dominican Republic: 1 dead, flooding in southwest.
  • Bahamas: 0 dead, minor infrastructure damage and flooding in southeast.
  • Turks & Caicos: minimal to no impact.

Relief and Reconnection

The Cayman Islands became the first government to touch down in Jamaica post-storm. Premier Juliana O’Connor-Connolly led a contingent bringing a plane-load of essentials and pledged US $1.2 million in aid.

Reggae icon Shaggy arrived on a private jet with friends, delivering food, medical kits, and hygiene supplies.

Meanwhile, Starlink and FLOW Jamaica activated emergency satellite internet across Jamaica providing free connectivity through November.

From overseas, U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking during his Asia tour, announced that American search-and-rescue teams and disaster aid will support the region.

“They can depend on U.S. assistance as they recover from this historic storm,” he said.

Faith, Funds, and False Websites

The Government of Jamaica and the Sandals Foundation have both launched verified donation portals for recovery. Officials are warning against fake crowdfunding pages posing as relief sites and urging donors to use only official channels.

A Seventh Nation in the Crosshairs – Bermuda

As Hurricane Melissa left the Caribbean basin, Bermuda found itself next in line.

Forecasts indicated the storm would pass just west of the island late Thursday into Friday, likely as a Category 1 to 2 hurricane with sustained winds near 105 mph.

Though far weaker than when it ravaged Jamaica, officials issued a hurricane warning, urging residents to secure property and expect tropical-storm conditions.

By all appearances Bermuda is heeding the warnings

The Human Response

Across the Caribbean, solidarity surged.

The Global Empowerment Mission (GEM) in Miami began airlifting relief supplies, while churches, civic groups, and businesses in The Bahamas and Turks & Caicos organized drives for displaced families.

“Your dedication gave our islands the strength to face the storm,” Premier Misick said. “Together, as one Caribbean family, we will rise stronger.”

Resilience in the Wake

Melissa’s winds may have faded, but her impact endures. Engineers are inspecting bridges, hillsides, and water systems; volunteers are clearing debris and distributing aid in communities still cut off.

From Haiti’s ravaged river valleys to Jamaica’s sugar towns, from Cuba’s eastern hills to The Bahamas’ salt ponds and Bermuda’s reefs, the region once again stands at the crossroads of ruin and renewal — and leans, as always, toward hope and a faithful God

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Weather

Nine Dead in Cabo Verde Flooding as Hurricane Erin Moves Through Caribbean

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Deandrea Hamilton | Editor

August 15, 2025 – At least nine people, including four children, were killed in flash flooding on the island of São Vicente, Cabo Verde, when the storm that would become Hurricane Erin swept through the West African archipelago last week. Authorities there say another five remain missing and more than 1,500 residents were displaced after torrential rains inundated homes and swept vehicles from the streets.

Now a major hurricane over the Atlantic, Erin has moved past the Leeward Islands, the British Virgin Islands, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, where residents endured heavy rain, gusty winds, and rough seas over the weekend. The Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services has issued an official all clear for the Leeward and British Virgin Islands, though forecasters caution that flood watches, high surf, and rip current risks remain in place.

Damage assessments from the Virgin Islands are still under way, with reports of localized flooding, power outages, and disrupted transport. No fatalities have been reported in the Caribbean to date.

Attention has now shifted to the Turks and Caicos Islands, which are beginning to feel tropical storm conditions as Erin tracks northwest. Heavy rainbands and gusty winds are expected to continue there into Monday, bringing the potential for flooding and coastal erosion.

Meanwhile, in The Bahamas, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued, with forecasters warning of heavy rainfall, dangerous seas, and possible tropical-storm-force winds later this week. Travelers to both The Bahamas and Turks and Caicos are being urged to monitor advisories closely, check travel plans with airlines and hotels, and follow local safety instructions.

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Caribbean News

Rain, Dust, and Rising Heat: Signs Point to a Wetter, Wavier August in TCI and The Bahamas

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Deandrea Hamilton | Editor

 

August 1, 2025 – The Turks and Caicos Islands and The Bahamas are entering a pivotal weather phase as tropical moisture is expected to bring rain from Monday through Wednesday, signaling a shift in conditions despite no tropical cyclone currently affecting the region. Forecasters, including several YouTube weather analysts, have flagged this transition—not as a storm, but as a notable uptick in rainfall associated with atmospheric waves approaching the southwest Atlantic.

This change is arriving alongside a forecasted plume of Saharan dust, set to drift westward early next week. That dry, dusty air layer is notorious for reducing cloud cover, suppressing rainfall in the early season, and limiting tropical storm formation. When it arrives, skies will turn hazy, air quality may decline to moderate levels, and visibility will lower, even while thermometers remain elevated.

Meanwhile, long-range models from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center flag the Atlantic and eastern Gulf corridor from August 6–12 as the first period this season with increased chances—albeit still low—of tropical development. Historically, August marks the escalation of hurricane formation, making the coming weeks especially important for vigilant monitoring.                                                                                                                                                                                                         As of August 1, 2025, three named storms have already formed in the Atlantic: AlbertoBeryl, and Chris. The remaining names for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season are: Debby, Ernesto, Florence, Gordon, Humberto, Idalia, Jose, Katia, Lee, Margot, Nigel, Ophelia, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, and Victor.

At present, no systems in the Pacific basin are forecasted to affect Puerto Rico, the Turks and Caicos Islands, or The Bahamas. The eastern Pacific remains active, but no cross-basin moisture or disturbances are expected to cross into our region.

In summary, residents should brace for a few days of elevated rain chances in early August, under skies tinged with dust and variable sunshine. While the Atlantic remains largely quiet today, a gradual shift toward wetter, more unstable weather is underway, and early to mid-August may well mark the true start of the season’s active phase. Stay tuned for updated alerts and official forecasts as conditions evolve.

Photo Caption: MrWeatherman/YouTube

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