Hurricane Warnings on for many as Tropical Strom Raphael takes aim

Garfield Ekon

Staff Writer

November 5, 2024 – A hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands and lesser alerts for parts of Cuba and Jamaica, as a weather system being monitored in the Caribbean developed into a tropical depression Monday morning.

The system was forecast to continue strengthening, the National Hurricane Center said, potentially becoming a tropical storm by the end of the day and a hurricane by Wednesday. Currently, Tropical Storm Raphael is moving at NW at 13 mph with tropical storm form winds extending outwards, 105 miles, from the centre.

The hurricane center said in an advisory Monday that the system was expected to approach the northwestern part of Cuba around the time it reaches hurricane strength. “On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica late tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday,” forecasters said.

They wrote in an earlier advisory that the system “could be near or at hurricane intensity when it passes near the Cayman Islands and Cuba.” As of 4 a.m., Tuesday, the tropical storm was about 170 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica and 425 miles southeast of Grand Cayman in the Cayman Islands. It was moving with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, the center reported.

Maximum sustained winds of 74 mph are needed for classification as a hurricane.

The Miami-based National Hurricane Center said the heaviest rainfall is forecast to occur over Jamaica and parts of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall will likely be accompanied by hurricane conditions in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon, and, possibly, in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions were expected to arrive in Jamaica by Monday night.

“Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible,” the center noted. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeast United States in the mid-to-late week, the center said.

“Models are in disagreement of where it will track after it reaches the Gulf,” Nolan says, “but the Gulf coasts from Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida need to be on alert for impacts at the end of the week.”