Risk of New Variants as cases explode in China; global spread possible

By Dana Malcolm

Staff Writer 

#China, December 26, 2022 – As COVID-19 cases in China continue to balloon spreading swiftly through the most populous nation in the world, a significant risk is beginning to emerge, the possibility of new variants.

Omicron and its sub-variants currently top the globe in terms of infections and scientists have only just figured out how to create specific vaccines that protect against it. The fastest spreading variant ever, during its onset in early 2022, millions were infected and millions died.

Before Omicron came Delta and several others, all different enough from the original strain of Covid that they warranted serious concern. As the virus keeps replicating (as it infects new people and animals) mistakes can be made in its RNA; these mistakes are called mutations. A virus that is spreading more has more opportunities to mutate. Enough mutations can cause a whole new variant.

According to Johns Hopkins Medicine, geographic separation tends to result in genetically distinct variants.

In addition in China the bulk of the population has never had COVID-19 because of the former strict lockdown protocols.  This means the country has very little natural immunity against any of the variants and any herd immunity will depend on vaccination. 87 percent of the population is vaccinated but less than 60 per cent is boosted, leaving hundreds of millions of people with waning immunity or none at all; nearly ideal conditions for a fast spreading respiratory virus.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the next variant of concern will spread even faster than Omicron it must in order to overtake it. An outbreak of a variant more infectious than Omicron or its sub variants in the manufacturing capital of the globe; in the middle of a Russian war and a barely recovering supply chain would spell disaster.

The possibility of it spreading to the rest of the globe must also be considered, the outcome of that on the travel industry and supply chain would be astronomical.

India, the second largest country in the world which shares a land border with China, has already begun to randomly test visitors as it keeps a sharp eye out for any new variants.