ALERT #4 ON SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE ISSUED BY THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY  AT 2PM EST, MONDAY 7TH NOVEMBER, 2022.

…NICOLE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH…

…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS…

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THESE INCLUDE THE ISLANDS OF GRAND BAHAMA, ABACO, BIMINI, THE BERRY ISLANDS, ELEUTHERA, NEW PROVIDENCE AND ANDROS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD BE EXPERIENCED IN THE ABOVEMENTIONED ISLANDS WITHIN 48 HOURS.

AT 1 PM EST, THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4° DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 70.1° DEGREES WEST, OR ABOUT:

420 MILES EAST OF HOPE TOWN, ABACO,
480 MILES EAST OF EAST END, GRAND BAHAMA,
390 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF GOVERNORS HARBOUR, ELEUTHERA
AND 455 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF NEW PROVIDENCE.

NICOLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. THIS MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND THAT MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF NICOLE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT EVENING, MOVE NEAR OR OVER THOSE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND NICOLE IS FORECAST TO BE AT HURRICANE INTENSITY BY WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE IT IS MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

STORM SURGE COULD RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES, ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THE FORMATION OF WATERSPOUTS AND TORNADOS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE PASSAGE OF NICOLE THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.

RESIDENTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICOLE. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

THE NEXT ALERT ON SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE WILL BE ISSUED AT 5PM EST.

PREPARED BY: MARY BUTLER
CHIEF METEOROLOGICAL OFFICER

(For more updates visit our webpage: met.gov.bs)