More than Wheat; equity & poverty alleviation efforts stymied by invasion of Ukraine

By Dana Malcolm

Staff Writer

#Ukraine, May 27, 2022 – It has been just over three months since Russia invaded Ukraine and though the fighting is confined to a small area the effects on food supplies are affecting the globe at a startling rate.

More than 2.5 billion people worldwide depend on wheat as a staple food according to a Research Program on Wheat carried out by CGIAR a global partnership that unites international organizations engaged in research about food security.

CGIAR says by 2050 that demand will rise by 50 percent and it had had very hopeful predictions for the year  2022. Along with more improved crop management it had predicted that

“Wheat yields will be increasing by an average 1.5 percent each year. 30 million people (half of them women) will have been helped to escape poverty.30 million more people (half of them women) will be meeting minimum daily requirements for carbohydrates.”

While the research body prepared for drought related drops in production it did not (and could not) account for the war in Ukraine.

Russia and Ukraine combined produce over 20 percent of total wheat exports globally with the blocking of Ukraine’s ports The immediate impact is that exporting wheat that is already produced becomes exceedingly difficult.

The long term impact may see wheat prices remaining high for a while as more that 14 million of Ukraine’s population are thought to have fled the country with no clear date for return. Additionally the drafting of young men into war, fears of shelling, wartime fatigue understandably makes  production nearly impossible.

The effects are already being felt worldwide. Wheat is the main crop in North Africa and already bread basket items have risen exponentially in areas like Ethiopia and Somalia which have seen rises of 66 percent and 36 percent respectively according to the UN.

With Heat Waves affecting Indian wheat producers the shortage might become even more dire.

India is one of the largest wheat producers in the world and much of it is used to feed its own people. With a possible dent in that production resources may become even more scarce.