The Problem is, TCI Population Data Sketchy…

#TurksandCaicos, June 16, 2021 – If the World Bank statistics are most correct, then Turks and Caicos is already with over 70 per cent of adults vaccinated for the coronavirus and with that goal achieved, many expect the June 30 expiration of the current raft of restrictions, to be rolled back for a fully re-opened economy. 

The problem with the count and the expectation in TCI is this,  it is unclear what is the exact population in this jurisdiction, as figures are all over the place.  Even the Minister of Health admits no one really knows.

What is clear however, is that reputable organisations put the estimate at under 40,000 people and that has the potential to dramatically alter reality and perception on vaccine penetration in this UK overseas territory.

If TCI goes with the number of 46,000 population and 36,000 adults  it means we need 25,000 adults vaccinated in order to meet the herd immunity threshold set by Government  as the criteria for full opening of economy.  However, if it goes by entities with more live statistics like the World Bank, which says population is just over 39,000, then 70 per cent of adults vaccinated requires for 21,000 people to be vaccinated and TCI is now past that figure. 

Ministry of Health last week revealed that 22,700 people have received their first jab.  And running TCIG targets on the higher and unsubstantiated population figures could mean we take a much longer time to get to 70 per cent, which means we take a much longer time to get to herd immunity, which means we take a longer time to fully open the economy when more than likely, we are already there. 

Like the CDCs off-beat rating… this is worth another look.