#TurksandCaicosIslands – Full Statement by Leader of Progressive National Party (PNP) – In times of national crisis, the well being of people surpasses politics, and all decisions made with the potential outcome of securing the welfare of the TCI and its people will be supported by me.
The Premier contacted me last week Thursday, 12 March 2020 to say that there were two suspected cases of COVID-19; seven persons were in self quarantine and that she would keep me updated on matters as results became known. That was the only conversation during this crisis that I have had with the Premier. However, I am happy to hear that to date TCI is COVID-19 free.
The COVID-19 pandemic has created a
global panic that are seeing border after border closing and countries becoming
virtual fortresses as whole communities are forced by their governments to
retreat within the walls of their homes. The streets of many busy commercial
districts are reminiscent of the sixty’s television series: The
Twilight Zone except that this is not science fiction, but reality.
In this hypervigilant environment of
fear the TCI must take its cue from governments and countries with the
technical skills and means to assess the risk and potential fall-out from the
pandemic without frightening its people into psychological paralysis. However,
considering the social and economic impact of a prolonged life cycle of the
virus one wonders if TCIG has to date move swiftly enough to prepare the
islands in the event the virus gets into the general population.
As an example, the government should
by now have undertaken the mass distribution of surgical masks; and alcohol
base hand sanatisers – because many people simply do not have access to a
dependable source of water, and some who do, cannot afford mask and sanitizers
assuming that they are available locally. This is especially concerning given that there
are no testing facilities and the availability of testing kits in the islands
has not been disclosed neither has the process for testing suspected cases to
ensure that samples can reach labs before the expiration of the life span of
the virus outside a host.
The TCI is a tourism dependent
destination and the hiatus in travel may be devastating for the country. The
industry indicates that cancellation rate for stay-over visitors to the TCI as
of today has exceeded 60% of forward bookings for the next six weeks, and new
bookings have ground to a halt. By some estimates the current rate of global
infection is expected to peak towards the end of April but will be with us at
least through June. Therefore, the rate
of cancellation could possibly last for 90 days. At the same time, cruise
passenger arrivals for the time being has been reduced by 100%.
The multiplier effect of visitors
spending in the local economy is difficult to measure but according to the
World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) the multiplier for tourism is 3.2 times
the initial dollar spent. Given
significant leakages because of TCI dependence on imported goods and labour, as
well as limited activities and attractions in the destination, a multiplier of
2 is assumed to be more realistic. Assuming therefore an adjusted average daily
spending (ADS) per visitor of $200, the total impact to the GDP would be $400
per day per visitor.
Average visitor arrivals for March
through the end of May in 2018 was 100,000 with an average stay of 6 nights
according to TCI Statistics Department. Assuming TCIG was on target to receive
the same number of visitors in the same period of 2020 as it received in 2018
that would translate into 600,000 nights at $200 or $120 million directly to
the industry; with a multiplier of 2 that equals a contribution to the GDP of
$240 million. A 60% cancellation over 90
days could result in lost revenue to the industry of $72 million, to the GDP of
$144 million and $14.4 million to TCIG from stay over visitors. Cruise tourism
arrivals for the period March through May 2019 was approximately 265 000
passengers. Assuming similar numbers
were expected in 2020: an average spent per head of $50 would result in lost
revenue of $13.25 million to vendors and tour operators in addition to TCIG
departure tax of $14 translating to 3.7 million of lost TCIG revenue in the
beleaguered economy of Grand Turk
Based on the above, a combined total
of upwards to $85 million could potentially be loss to the private sector, over
$18 million to TCIG and approximately $160 million could be shave off of the
GDP in the next 90 days. This is a potential reduction of 16% base on a
one-billion-dollar economy. The gravity of the situation may require the
declaration of a state of emergency by the Governor under Section 37 (1)(c) of
the TCI Constitution to mandate actions in the public interest. What these actions should be would depend on
the prevailing circumstances over time but should pertain to certain basic
physiological needs of food, water, shelter and safety in its broadest sense;
and may include rationing to discourage hoarding resulting in artificial
shortages for some people; as well as price control on staples and sanitary
goods.
Given the favourable cash balances of
the TCIG, it should take action to ease the pressure off of consumers by
removing duties and custom processing fees from all basic consumable
merchandise imported, to make it easier on workers. In addition, it should through the House of
Assembly appropriate funding for social welfare to subsidize the living
expenses of unsupported indigents, and other vulnerable groups; negotiate with financial
institutions to freeze for a period of 90 days mortgage payments for those
persons who find themselves unemployed or underemployed and unable to meet
their payments; and negotiate a freeze on the Fortis rate increase and all
other rates until further notice. Consider introducing a means testing
framework to provide relief to basic wage earners in the hospitality and
related industries until the industry recovers.
Whatever the outcome, the situation
has place in sharp focus the tremendous vulnerabilities we face as a small
tourism dependent country. In the face of the challenges, it cannot be business
as usual. We must immediately reprogram
our collective mind-set to suit our unique circumstances. In the new reality
food and citizen security, social development and environmental sustainability
MUST trump everything else. We simply must prepare ourselves for the growing
natural and manmade threats of the 21st century. Regardless to how
we arrive here and whatever our political persuasion maybe we face a common and
uncertain future at least in the short term; and in these times must coalesce
around the common value of cooperation and community.
Finally, I wish to appeal to all to
heed the massages from the authorities. The risk is high, the threat is real,
resources are limited and facilities are rudimentary. Stay at home unless you absolutely need to be
out. This too will pass, but in the meanwhile hunker down.
Sincere thanks and gratitude to all
those on the frontline especially our medical professional and senior public
health officials for your tireless efforts in monitoring this pandemic in the
interest of all of us. It is in these
times when your genius shine. I appreciate your invaluable contribution and
sacrifice and pray for your safety and good health.
May God bless our beautiful Islands
and may he keep us safe and healthy!!!